Muhamad
Suliswanto1*, Dewi Ana Rusim2, Apolo Safanpo3
1*,2,3
Faculty of Engineering, Jayapura City, Indonesia
*email: muliswanto@gmail.com
�����������������������������������������������
|
Keywords |
|
Abstract: |
|
Project financial analysis, NPV, BCR, IRR,
BEP, sensitivity analysis |
|
Acceleration of development in the 3T
(Forefront, Outermost and Disadvantaged) areas is the main goal of the
government in supporting economic equality and educational services in the
land of Papua. So that Cenderawasih University as
an extension of the government plans to build a Teaching Hospital to support
the activities and development of Cenderawasih
University graduates and carry out health services, research and community
services. In this study to analyze the feasibility of this teaching hospital
project using the NPV (Net Preset Value), BCR
(Benefit Cost Ratio), IRR (Internal Rate Ratio), BEP (Break Even Point) and
sensitivity analysis methods to determine whether the hospital The project is
feasible or not feasible but it is hoped that the results of the analysis are
positive. |
|
|
INTRODUCTION
Accelerating
development in the 3T (Frontier, Outermost and Disadvantaged) areas is the
government's main goal in supporting economic equality. And in implementing the
acceleration of human resource development in Papua, especially in Jayapura
City, Cenderawasih University was formed as an
extension of the government in creating human resources that are ready to face
the rapidly developing fields of science and technology.
Cenderawasih University is
one of the favorite universities in Papua, so it is not surprising that every
year there are so many interested applicants for new students who almost always
exceed the quota of applicants provided. So with this, there is a great demand
for additional facilities and infrastructure to accommodate prospective new students.
With the increase in the number of Cenderawasih
University students every year, the level of need for lecture facilities and
infrastructure also increases.
In its development, Cenderawasih
University is planning the construction of educational hospital building
facilities to be able to support activities and develop graduates from the
Faculty of Medicine and to provide services to the academic community of Cenderawasih University itself. As a teaching hospital, Cenderawasih University Hospital has the general goal of
providing health services as well as carrying out education, research and
community service.
In 2017, construction of the Educational Hospital project
under the Ministry of Research, Technology and Higher Education stopped due to
budget limitations at the ministry, but in 2022, through the Ministry of
Health, the educational hospital project was resumed as the Papua Vertical
Technical Implementation Unit Hospital.
So, based on the background, a feasibility study for the
UPT Vertical Papua Hospital building will be analyzed. This research is
expected to provide information about one important aspect of a feasibility
study, namely the financial aspect. This financial analysis is to review the
amount of capital and sources of funds that will be used to build the business
as well as when and how the capital can be returned.
The aim of this research is to identify and analyze the
financial feasibility of the Papua Vertical UPT Hospital building construction
project using the NPV (Net Present Value), BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio) and IRR
(Internal Rate of Return) methods. Apart from that, this research also aims to
analyze the sensitivity level of the project, as well as determine the Payback
Period (PP) as an indicator of the return on investment in the project.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Research conducted by Nurwanda
Sari, ST., MT., et al (2020) research on Preliminary Technical Feasibility Analysis,
Operational, Economic Of Radin Inten
II International Airports Trains, South Lampung ( preliminary , operational and economic feasibility analysis on international
airport trains Radin Inten
II, South Lampung) The aim of this
research is to determine the feasibility of the Radin
Inten II International Airport train operating system and implementing cost benefits resulting from the operation of the Radin Inten II International
Airport train.
Research conducted by Mohammed Ali Berawi,
et al (2015) research on feasibility
analysis of the trans-Sumatra toll road using value engineering (feasibility
analysis of the trans-Sumatra toll road using value engineering methods). The
aim of this research is to determine the projected
income from each additional function TSTR (Trans Sumatra-Toll Road ) . This is done by
analyzing the income generating factors and then organizing them into a CLD ( Casual Loop Diagram ). The feasibility
analysis methods used are Net Present Value (NPV) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Payback Period (PP).
Research conducted by SA Hasan, et al (2018) research on feasibility study and economic assessment for
Al-Qadisiyah University Hospital of Specialized Surgery. The
aim of this research is to evaluate opportunities. Investment to establish a
university hospital with a capacity of 50 beds, the research results show that
an internal rate of return (IRR) of (10.6%) and a recovery period of (6) years
can be achieved and this project is considered economically feasible.
Research conducted by Feri Eka Irawan, et al (2020) research
on the economic feasibility analysis of the construction of the Sadewa building at RSUD KRMT Wongsonegorokota
Semarang, the aim of the research is to obtain
technical economic feasibility values with the parameters NPV, BCR, IRR, Payback
Period and Sensitivity Analysis of feasibility values Technical economics
is viewed from sensitivity analysis and to obtain the payback period value in
order to know when the capital will be returned.
Research conducted by Junita Eka Susanti, et al (2019)
research on economic feasibility analysis of the Bangka Regency Sports Hall
(GOR) construction project, the aim of the research is to analyze investment in
the sports hall (GOR) construction
project. The analytical tool used in this research is the Financial Aspect
Feasibility Study, namely the Net Present Value (NPV) Internal Rate
of Return (IRR), Payback Period (PP) method.
Research conducted by Nadya Modisty, et al (2018)
research on engineering investment analysis for the construction of public
lecture buildings and technical laboratories at the Sumatra Institute of
Technology. The aim of this research is to study whether the existing
development is in accordance with the existing feasibility study analysis so
that after the construction of the project is carried out the results can be
achieved as planned. In this research, financial feasibility is reviewed using
the Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR), Internal
Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PP) methods.
Research conducted by Dewi Ana Rusim, et al (2018)
research on risk modeling and responses to road infrastructure development from
the contractor's perspective (case study: construction industry in Papua). The
aim of this research is risk modeling and response to cost performance risks in
road infrastructure development in Papua.
��������� Research conducted by Shinta Retno Putri, et al (2013)
research on financial feasibility studies on the Dinoyo
Mall development project, Malang City. The aim of this research is to compare
the profits obtained from operational income with investment costs. In its
implementation this research uses the Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR), Internal
Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PP) methods. ).
RESEARCH METHODS
The location of this
research was carried out at the Cenderawasih
University land area, the kola trikora Bawah water
pond complex, Hedam Village, Heram
District, Jayapura City at a geographical location of 2�32'15' - 2�42'0' South
Latitude and 140�35'0' - 140�40'15' East Longitude.
The following steps
will be taken in this research data collection method:
1.
Gather information and identify problems.
2.
From the information and data that has been
collected, investment feasibility analysis, data and calculations are then
carried out.
3.
Make conclusions.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Currently,
the construction of the Cenderawasih University
Teaching Hospital (RSP) is being implemented in order to improve medical
education by providing facilities and infrastructure for the Teaching Hospital
to improve the quality of medical students and public access to services. Maximum health. The development plan for
the Cenderawasih University Teaching Hospital (RSP)
is planned with Type B in the form of building a Central Hospital, Mother &
Child Hospital and Inpatient Building. However, in its development, the
educational hospital project was taken over by the Ministry of Health and
re-planned to become a UPT Vertical Papua hospital with Type A
hospital, so that its implementation requires
studies financial feasibility of the project as Wrong one
document project planning in
completing supporting documents in the hospital construction plan.
The
Papua Vertical UPT Hospital is located in Hedam
sub-district, Heram District, Jayapura City. The
planned building area is as follows:
1. Building area
of building A �� : 16,992.54 m2
2. Building area
of building B �� : 17,129.29 m2
3. Building area
C ������� : 3,629.41 m2
Total building area ������������ : 37,751.24 m2
The
area of green open space: 14,222 m2 which is planned to be used for parks and
environmental roads, while the remaining 7,500 m2 of land is used as a green
environment and retention pond.
For the
planned number of beds in the first stage for Class B hospitals 237 TT and in
the next stage for Class A hospitals 320 TT.
From secondary data obtained from the planning team for the
UPT Vertical Papua hospital with a building area of 33,720 m2 ,
so cost Which invested as big as
total Rp. 1,075,850,660,000,- with details
as following:
Table 1
Recapitulation of
investment costs for building the Papua Vertical UPT Hospital
|
No |
Description |
Investment Amount |
|
1 |
Physical
cost of the building |
IDR
701,225,147,000.00 |
|
2 |
Costs
for procuring medical equipment |
IDR
294,503,003,204.00 |
|
3 |
Costs
for procuring office equipment and inventory |
IDR
70,122,514,700.00 |
|
4 |
Working
capital/working capital |
IDR
10,000,000,000.00 |
|
Total investment |
IDR 1,075,850,664,904.00 |
|
Source: Papua Vertical
UPT Hospital Planning Consultant Team
Before carrying out a
financial analysis on the Cenderawasih University
Vertical UPT Hospital building construction project, the components which are
the basic reference for this research are first determined, namely in the form
of the project funding scheme, construction period, and economic factors at the
time the research was carried out.
The
basic factors in the financial analysis of the Papua Vertical UPT Hospital
project which are used as a reference in the simulations carried out in this
research are as follows:
Table
2
Basic
factors for financial analysis of the UPT Vertical Papua Hospital building
project
|
PROJECT DESCRIPTION |
|||||||
|
Project name |
: |
Papua Vertical UPT
Hospital |
|||||
|
Location |
: |
Abepura, Kab. Jayapura,
Province. Papua |
|||||
|
PROJECT TIME LINE |
|||||||
|
Construction Period |
: |
- |
|||||
|
Terms Proportion |
: |
1st
year |
2nd year |
||||
|
-% |
-% |
||||||
|
Economic Life |
: |
30 |
years |
||||
|
Base Year |
: |
2023 |
|
||||
|
PROJECT FINANCING
COSTS |
|||||||
|
Project Finance |
: |
APBN/
Ministry of Health |
|||||
|
Fund and Debt
Portion |
: |
Equity |
+ |
Loans |
|||
|
Loan and Equity
Ratio |
: |
100% |
+ |
0% |
|||
|
Loans |
|||||||
|
Interest Rate (r) |
: |
0% |
annually |
||||
|
Repayment Period |
: |
0 |
years |
||||
|
ECONOMIC FACTORS |
|||||||
|
Indonesian Corporate
Tax |
: |
25% |
|||||
|
Indonesia Rp Inflation Rate |
: |
5.75% |
|||||
|
Exchange Rate (Rp/USD) |
: |
15,292 |
|||||
Source:
Analysis results
Estimated cash inflow (cash inflow)
The component of cash inflow in the construction of
the UPT Vertical Papua hospital building is revenue, which is obtained
from several of the revenues mentioned above.
By assuming an
increase in revenue for the UP Vertical Papua hospital, a scheme has been
created to determine the Cost of Goods Sold (HPP) for the UPT Vertical Papua
Hospital to gradually increase by the inflation value over its economic life,
namely 5.75% per year.
After obtaining the size of the Annual Power Sale and the amount of
increase in income, the annual revenue value is calculated as follows:
Formula
used:
Nth year rate = 1st
Year Rate x (1 + inflation) n
Referring
to the calculations of the planning consultant team for the Papua Vertical UPT
Hospital, it was found that the income projection results for year I of the
Papua Vertical UPT Hospital generated an income of Rp.
282,126,682,209,- so that if included in the potential revenue formula it is as
follows:
282,126,682,209 x (1+5.75%) 2 ������� = Rp. 315,504,032,006,-
Based
on the calculation results above, the potential revenue can be seen in the
following table:
Table 3
Potential annual
revenue of UPT Vertical Hospital Papua
|
20th year |
Potential revenue |
|
1 |
IDR
282,126,682,209 |
|
2 |
IDR
315,504,032,006 |
|
3 |
IDR
333,645,513,846 |
|
4 |
IDR
352,830,130,893 |
|
5 |
IDR
373,117,863,419 |
|
6 |
IDR
394,572,140,566 |
|
7 |
IDR
417,260,038,648 |
|
8 |
IDR
441,252,490,870 |
|
9 |
IDR
466,624,509,095 |
|
10 |
IDR
493,455,418,368 |
|
11 |
IDR
521,829,104,925 |
|
12 |
IDR
551,834,278,458 |
|
13 |
IDR
583,564,749,469 |
|
14 |
IDR
617,119,722,563 |
|
15 |
IDR
652,604,106,611 |
|
16 |
IDR
690,128,842,741 |
|
17 |
IDR
729,811,251,199 |
|
18 |
IDR
771,775,398,142 |
|
19 |
IDR
816,152,483,536 |
|
20 |
IDR
863,081,251,339 |
|
21 |
IDR
912,708,423,291 |
|
22 |
IDR
965,189,157,630 |
|
23 |
IDR
1,020,687,534,194 |
|
24 |
IDR
1,079,377,067,410 |
|
25 |
IDR
1,141,441,248,786 |
|
26 |
IDR
1,207,074,120,591 |
|
27 |
IDR
1,276,480,882,525 |
|
28 |
IDR
1,349,878,533,271 |
|
29 |
IDR
1,427,496,548,934 |
|
30 |
IDR
1,509,577,600,497 |
Source: analysis results
Estimated cash outflow (cash outflow)
Operational and maintenance costs are estimates of costs
incurred each year for the operation and maintenance of civil buildings and
electro-mechanical equipment. The cost is assumed to be 0.5% of each civil work
cost. Apart from annual costs, 5-year and 10-year O/M costs are also calculated
(Deviany Kartika, 2010).
The
estimated working capital for operations and maintenance of the
Papua Vertical UPT Hospital in the first year is as follows:
Working Capital for 1 year � =
0.5% x Total Investment
= 0.5% x Rp. 1,075,850,660,000,-
= Rp.
5,379,253,300,-
Estimated working capital, namely O&M costs in
the first year, is 0.5% of the initial investment costs with a total cost of Rp. 5,379,253,300
,-
The
costs at the Papua Jayapura Vertical UPT Hospital consist of two types of
costs, namely:
a.
Fixed costs ( fixed
O&M costs ) are costs that will always be incurred by the Papua
Vertical UPT Hospital and the amount does not depend on the results of the
services produced, such as employee salaries. The fixed O&M costs at
the Papua Vertical UPT Hospital are assumed to be 70% of the total operational
and maintenance costs each year.
b.
Variable costs (variable O&M costs) are
expenditure costs that will change according to service results. In this case,
the Papua Vertical UPT Hospital is not yet operational. So the variable O&M
costs at the Papua Vertical UPT Hospital are assumed to be 30% of the total
operational and maintenance costs each year.
Operational and maintenance costs begin to be
calculated in year I, which is when the Papua Vertical UPT Hospital project is
planned to start operating. Meanwhile, the next step is to include the
influence of inflation of 5.75% in order to discount the estimated value
of revenue obtained in the future.
Calculation example:
Rp. 5,379,253,300 x 70%
= Rp. 3,765,477,310,-
Rp. 5,379,253,300 x 30%
= Rp. 1,613,775,990,-
Based
on the calculation results above, it can be seen in the following table:
Table
4
Annual O&M cost for the Papua Vertical UPT Hospital project
|
20th year |
Annual O&M Cost |
Fixed O&M Cost
(70%) |
Variable O&M
Cost (30%) |
|
1 |
IDR 5,379,253,300 |
IDR 3,765,477,310 |
IDR 1,613,775,990 |
|
2 |
IDR 6,015,652,586 |
IDR 4,210,956,810 |
IDR 1,804,695,776 |
|
3 |
IDR 6,361,552,609 |
IDR 4,453,086,827 |
IDR 1,908,465,783 |
|
4 |
IDR 6,727,341,884 |
IDR 4,709,139,319 |
IDR 2,018,202,565 |
|
5 |
IDR 7,114,164,043 |
IDR 4,979,914,830 |
IDR 2,134,249,213 |
|
6 |
IDR 7,523,228,475 |
IDR 5,266,259,933 |
IDR 2,256,968,543 |
|
7 |
IDR 7,955,814,113 |
IDR 5,569,069,879 |
IDR 2,386,744,234 |
|
8 |
IDR 8,413,273,424 |
IDR 5,889,291,397 |
IDR 2,523,982,027 |
|
9 |
IDR 8,897,036,646 |
IDR 6,227,925,652 |
IDR 2,669,110,994 |
|
10 |
IDR 9,408,616,253 |
IDR 6,586,031,377 |
IDR 2,822,584,876 |
|
11 |
IDR 9,949,611,688 |
IDR 6,964,728,181 |
IDR 2,984,883,506 |
|
12 |
IDR 10,521,714,360 |
IDR 7,365,200,052 |
IDR 3,156,514,308 |
|
13 |
IDR 11,126,712,935 |
IDR 7,788,699,055 |
IDR 3,338,013,881 |
|
14 |
IDR 11,766,498,929 |
IDR 8,236,549,250 |
IDR 3,529,949,679 |
|
15 |
IDR 12,443,072,618 |
IDR 8,710,150,832 |
IDR 3,732,921,785 |
|
16 |
IDR 13,158,549,293 |
IDR 9,210,984,505 |
IDR 3,947,564,788 |
|
17 |
IDR 13,915,165,877 |
IDR 9,740,616,114 |
IDR 4,174,549,763 |
|
18 |
IDR 14,715,287,915 |
IDR 10,300,701,541 |
IDR 4,414,586,375 |
|
19 |
IDR 15,561,416,971 |
IDR 10,892,991,879 |
IDR 4,668,425,091 |
|
20 |
IDR 16,456,198,446 |
IDR 11,519,338,912 |
IDR 4,936,859,534 |
|
21 |
IDR 17,402,429,857 |
IDR 12,181,700,900 |
IDR 5,220,728,957 |
|
22 |
IDR 18,403,069,574 |
IDR 12,882,148,702 |
IDR 5,520,920,872 |
|
23 |
IDR 19,461,246,074 |
IDR 13,622,872,252 |
IDR 5,838,373,822 |
|
24 |
IDR 20,580,267,724 |
IDR 14,406,187,406 |
IDR 6,174,080,317 |
|
25 |
IDR 21,763,633,118 |
IDR 15,234,543,182 |
IDR 6,529,089,935 |
|
26 |
IDR 23,015,042,022 |
IDR 16,110,529,415 |
IDR 6,904,512,607 |
|
27 |
IDR 24,338,406,938 |
IDR 17,036,884,857 |
IDR 7,301,522,081 |
|
28 |
IDR 25,737,865,337 |
IDR 18,016,505,736 |
IDR 7,721,359,601 |
|
29 |
IDR 27,217,792,594 |
IDR 19,052,454,816 |
IDR 8,165,337,778 |
|
30 |
IDR 28,782,815,668 |
IDR 20,147,970,968 |
IDR 8,634,844,700 |
Source: analysis results
From
the results of the calculations above, it is obtained that operational and
maintenance costs at the beginning of the operational year for the UPT Vertical
Papua Hospital were Rp. 5,379,253,300 and is assumed
to increase following the increase in inflation, namely 5.75% in the following
years.
Depreciation (depreciation)
To obtain the
depreciation value, the straight line
method is used. The annual depreciation value on the Jayapura port apron
can be calculated as follows:
Depreciation � = Cost of building the asset - Residual
value of the asset
The economic
life of the asset
= Rp.
1,075,850,660,000 � Rp. 0������������
30 years
= Rp.
35,861,688,667
By starting from the
time the construction period has been completed, depreciation is calculated
starting from year 1 when the operational period begins. So, from the
calculation results it was found that the depreciation value of the Papua
Vertical UPT Hospital project was IDR. 35,861,688,667,-
per year during the economic life of the Papua Vertical UPT Hospital.
Tax
The tax calculated in this research is corporate income
tax and is calculated at the beginning of the operational year, because in
calculating the gross income (revenue ) of
the Papua Vertical UPT Hospital, the value is more than 50 billion, the tax
calculation that must be paid to the government is equal to 25% of gross income
each year, in accordance with the basic tax laws contained in Law no. 7 of 1983
concerning income tax, which was later amended by Law no. 36 of 2008 concerning
the fourth amendment to Law no. 7 of 1983 concerning income tax, as well as
Government Regulation no. 46 of 2013 concerning income tax on income from
businesses received or obtained by taxpayers who have a certain gross turnover.
So
the amount of tax that must be paid each year during the economic life of the
Papua Vertical UPT Hospital can be seen as follows:
Formula
used:
Tax ��� = Revenue x
25%
Calculation
example:
Rp. 282,126,682,209 x
25% ��������� = Rp.
70,531,670,552,-
Based
on the example calculation results, the complete calculation can be seen in the
following table:
Table 4
Tax amount per year
|
1st Operational Year |
Gross Income |
Taxes 25% |
|
1 |
IDR
282,126,682,209 |
IDR
70,531,670,552 |
|
2 |
IDR
315,504,032,006 |
IDR
78,876,008,002 |
|
3 |
IDR
333,645,513,846 |
IDR
83,411,378,462 |
|
4 |
IDR
352,830,130,893 |
IDR
88,207,532,723 |
|
5 |
IDR
373,117,863,419 |
IDR
93,279,465,855 |
|
6 |
IDR
394,572,140,566 |
IDR
98,643,035,141 |
|
7 |
IDR
417,260,038,648 |
IDR
104,315,009,662 |
|
8 |
IDR
441,252,490,870 |
IDR
110,313,122,718 |
|
9 |
IDR
466,624,509,095 |
IDR
116,656,127,274 |
|
10 |
IDR
493,455,418,368 |
IDR
123,363,854,592 |
|
11 |
IDR
521,829,104,925 |
IDR
130,457,276,231 |
|
12 |
IDR
551,834,278,458 |
IDR
137,958,569,614 |
|
13 |
IDR
583,564,749,469 |
IDR
145,891,187,367 |
|
14 |
IDR
617,119,722,563 |
IDR
154,279,930,641 |
|
15 |
IDR
652,604,106,611 |
IDR
163,151,026,653 |
|
16 |
IDR
690,128,842,741 |
IDR
172,532,210,685 |
|
17 |
IDR
729,811,251,199 |
IDR
182,452,812,800 |
|
18 |
IDR
771,775,398,142 |
IDR
192,943,849,536 |
|
19 |
IDR
816,152,483,536 |
IDR
204,038,120,884 |
|
20 |
IDR
863,081,251,339 |
IDR
215,770,312,835 |
|
21 |
IDR
912,708,423,291 |
IDR
228,177,105,823 |
|
22 |
IDR
965,189,157,630 |
IDR
241,297,289,408 |
|
23 |
IDR 1,020,687,534,194 |
IDR
255,171,883,548 |
|
24 |
IDR
1,079,377,067,410 |
IDR
269,844,266,853 |
|
25 |
IDR
1,141,441,248,786 |
IDR
285,360,312,197 |
|
26 |
IDR
1,207,074,120,591 |
IDR
301,768,530,148 |
|
27 |
IDR
1,276,480,882,525 |
IDR
319,120,220,631 |
|
28 |
IDR
1,349,878,533,271 |
IDR
337,469,633,318 |
|
29 |
IDR
1,427,496,548,934 |
IDR
356,874,137,233 |
|
30 |
IDR
1,509,577,600,497 |
IDR
377,394,400,124 |
Source: analysis
results
Cash
Flow Analysis
Cash flow functions to see the
cash inflow and cash outflow at the UPT Vertical Papua Hospital starting from
the construction period until the operational period, so that it can provide an
overview of the financial capacity of the UPT Vertical Papua Hospital each year,
the formula used is as follows:
Where:
PV ���� = Present
value/ current value
FV ���� = Future
value/ later value
I ������ = rate/interest rate
N ������ = certain period/th
year
Calculation example:
PV ���� = Rp.
206,215,758,357 x (1/(1+5.75%))
��������� = Rp. 195,003,081,188,-
For complete calculations, see the
following table:
Table
5
Vertical
UPT Hospital cash flow
|
20th year |
Potential Revenue |
Annual O&M Cost |
Taxes 25% |
Income |
PVIncome |
|
1 |
IDR 282,126,682,209 |
IDR 5,379,253,300 |
IDR 70,531,670,552 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
IDR 195,003,081,188 |
|
2 |
IDR 315,504,032,006 |
IDR 6,015,652,586 |
IDR 78,876,008,002 |
IDR 230,612,371,419 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
3 |
IDR 333,645,513,846 |
IDR 6,361,552,609 |
IDR 83,411,378,462 |
IDR 243,872,582,775 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
4 |
IDR 352,830,130,893 |
IDR 6,727,341,884 |
IDR 88,207,532,723 |
IDR 257,895,256,285 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
5 |
IDR 373,117,863,419 |
IDR 7,114,164,043 |
IDR 93,279,465,855 |
IDR 272,724,233,521 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
6 |
IDR 394,572,140,566 |
IDR 7,523,228,475 |
IDR 98,643,035,141 |
IDR 288,405,876,949 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
7 |
IDR 417,260,038,648 |
IDR 7,955,814,113 |
IDR 104,315,009,662 |
IDR 304,989,214,873 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
8 |
IDR 441,252,490,870 |
IDR 8,413,273,424 |
IDR 110,313,122,718 |
IDR 322,526,094,729 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
9 |
IDR 466,624,509,095 |
IDR 8,897,036,646 |
IDR 116,656,127,274 |
IDR 341,071,345,176 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
10 |
IDR 493,455,418,368 |
IDR 9,408,616,253 |
IDR 123,363,854,592 |
IDR 360,682,947,523 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
11 |
IDR 521,829,104,925 |
IDR 9,949,611,688 |
IDR 130,457,276,231 |
IDR 381,422,217,006 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
12 |
IDR 551,834,278,458 |
IDR 10,521,714,360 |
IDR 137,958,569,614 |
IDR 403,353,994,484 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
13 |
IDR 583,564,749,469 |
IDR 11,126,712,935 |
IDR 145,891,187,367 |
IDR 426,546,849,166 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
14 |
IDR 617,119,722,563 |
IDR 11,766,498,929 |
IDR 154,279,930,641 |
IDR 451,073,292,993 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
15 |
IDR 652,604,106,611 |
IDR 12,443,072,618 |
IDR 163,151,026,653 |
IDR 477,010,007,341 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
16 |
IDR 690,128,842,741 |
IDR 13,158,549,293 |
IDR 172,532,210,685 |
IDR 504,438,082,763 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
17 |
IDR 729,811,251,199 |
IDR 13,915,165,877 |
IDR 182,452,812,800 |
IDR 533,443,272,522 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
18 |
IDR 771,775,398,142 |
IDR 14,715,287,915 |
IDR 192,943,849,536 |
IDR 564,116,260,691 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
19 |
IDR 816,152,483,536 |
IDR 15,561,416,971 |
IDR 204,038,120,884 |
IDR 596,552,945,681 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
20 |
IDR 863,081,251,339 |
IDR 16,456,198,446 |
IDR 215,770,312,835 |
IDR 630,854,740,058 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
21 |
IDR 912,708,423,291 |
IDR 17,402,429,857 |
IDR 228,177,105,823 |
IDR 667,128,887,611 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
22 |
IDR 965,189,157,630 |
IDR 18,403,069,574 |
IDR 241,297,289,408 |
IDR 705,488,798,649 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
23 |
IDR
1,020,687,534,194 |
IDR 19,461,246,074 |
IDR 255,171,883,548 |
IDR 746,054,404,571 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
24 |
IDR
1,079,377,067,410 |
IDR 20,580,267,724 |
IDR 269,844,266,853 |
IDR 788,952,532,834 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
25 |
IDR
1,141,441,248,786 |
IDR 21,763,633,118 |
IDR 285,360,312,197 |
IDR 834,317,303,472 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
26 |
IDR
1,207,074,120,591 |
IDR 23,015,042,022 |
IDR 301,768,530,148 |
IDR 882,290,548,422 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
27 |
IDR
1,276,480,882,525 |
IDR 24,338,406,938 |
IDR 319,120,220,631 |
IDR 933,022,254,956 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
28 |
IDR
1,349,878,533,271 |
IDR 25,737,865,337 |
IDR 337,469,633,318 |
IDR 986,671,034,616 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
29 |
IDR
1,427,496,548,934 |
IDR 27,217,792,594 |
IDR 356,874,137,233 |
IDR
1,043,404,619,106 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
30 |
IDR
1,509,577,600,497 |
IDR 28,782,815,668 |
IDR 377,394,400,124 |
IDR
1,103,400,384,705 |
IDR 206,215,758,357 |
|
∑ PV Income |
IDR
5,144,181,281,750 |
Income obtained at the
beginning of the year was IDR. 195,003,081,188,- and is assumed to increase in subsequent
years following inflation of 5.75%.
Financial
Feasibility of the Papua Vertical UPT Hospital Project
the cash flow analysis of the Papua
Vertical UPT Hospital project, in analyzing financial feasibility, present
value is sought to be able to
calculate the time value of money in
the cash flows that have been analyzed. In data analysis, data is obtained
Outlay ��������� PV = Rp. 1,075,850,660,000,-
∑ PV income =
Rp. 1,509,577,600,497,-
Furthermore, in more
detail, in determining the financial feasibility of the Papua Vertical UPT
Hospital project, the investment assessment criteria method was used, namely Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), Internal Rate Return (IRR) and Break Even Point (BEP).
Net Present
Value (NPV)
The assessment
criteria for the NPV method are that if the calculation result is positive then
the investment is considered feasible, but if the opposite result is negative
then the investment is considered not feasible.
So the NPV value for the Papua Vertical
UPT Hospital project can be calculated as follows:
NPV ������� = ∑ PV income - PV outlay
=
Rp. 1,509,577,600,497 - Rp.
1,075,850,660,000
=
Rp. 433,726,940,497 (positive)
From the calculation
results, the NPV value for the Papua Vertical UPT Hospital project is positive,
so it can be concluded that the project is feasible.
Benefit Cost
Ratio (BCR)
The assessment
criteria for the BCR method are that a project is declared feasible if the BCR
value is greater than or equal to 1 or BCR > 1, and declared unfeasible if
the BCR value is less than 1.
The BCR value of the Papua Vertical UPT
Hospital can be calculated as follows:
BCR ����� = ∑ PV income / PV outlay
= Rp.
1,509,577,600,497 / Rp.
1,075,850,660,000
= 1.40
A BCR value greater
than 1 in the Papua Vertical UPT Hospital project indicates that the benefits
are greater than the costs incurred , so it can be concluded that the project is feasible
Internal Rate
Return (IRR)
The assessment
criteria for the IRR method is that if the IRR value is greater than the
specified interest rate, then the investment is feasible. If, on the other
hand, the IRR value is smaller than the interest rate, then the investment is
not feasible.
By using the trial and error method, the NPV for
different interest rates is as shown in the following table:
Table
6
Trial and error IRR
|
Year |
PVIncome |
PV income/(1+r)^n (+) |
PV income/(1+r)^n (-) |
|
1 |
IDR
195,003,081,188 |
IDR
165,256,848,465 |
IDR
163,868,135,452 |
|
2 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
148,100,946,823 |
IDR
145,622,313,648 |
|
3 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
125,509,276,969 |
IDR
122,371,692,141 |
|
4 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
106,363,794,041 |
IDR
102,833,354,740 |
|
5 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
90,138,808,510 |
IDR
86,414,583,815 |
|
6 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
76,388,820,771 |
IDR
72,617,297,324 |
|
7 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
64,736,288,789 |
IDR
61,022,938,928 |
|
8 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
54,861,261,686 |
IDR
51,279,780,611 |
|
9 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
46,492,594,649 |
IDR
43,092,252,615 |
|
10 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
39,400,503,940 |
IDR
36,211,976,987 |
|
11 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
33,390,257,576 |
IDR
30,430,232,762 |
|
12 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
28,296,828,454 |
IDR
25,571,624,170 |
|
13 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
23,980,363,097 |
IDR
21,488,759,807 |
|
14 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
20,322,341,607 |
IDR
18,057,781,350 |
|
15 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
17,222,323,396 |
IDR
15,174,606,177 |
|
16 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
14,595,189,319 |
IDR
12,751,769,896 |
|
17 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
12,368,804,507 |
IDR
10,715,773,022 |
|
18 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
10,482,037,718 |
IDR
9,004,851,279 |
|
19 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
8,883,082,812 |
IDR
7,567,101,915 |
|
20 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
7,528,036,281 |
IDR
6,358,909,172 |
|
21 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
6,379,691,764 |
IDR
5,343,621,153 |
|
22 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
5,406,518,444 |
IDR
4,490,437,944 |
|
23 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
4,581,795,291 |
IDR
3,773,477,264 |
|
24 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
3,882,877,366 |
IDR
3,170,989,297 |
|
25 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
3,290,574,039 |
IDR
2,664,696,889 |
|
26 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
2,788,622,067 |
IDR
2,239,241,083 |
|
27 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
2,363,239,040 |
IDR
1,881,715,196 |
|
28 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
2,002,744,949 |
IDR
1,581,273,274 |
|
29 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
1,697,241,482 |
IDR
1,328,801,070 |
|
30 |
IDR
206,215,758,357 |
IDR
1,438,340,239 |
IDR
1,116,639,555 |
|
∑ |
IDR
1,128,150,054,090 |
IDR
1,070,046,628,537 |
Source: analysis
results
By trial
and error, value is obtained
NPV1 ��������������� =
Rp. 52,299,394,090 ������� (Positive)
NPV2 ��������������� =
Rp. 5,804,031,463(Negative)
i1 ���������� =
18 %
i2 ���������� =
19%
So that,
IRR ����������������� = 19%
This IRR value is higher than the
specified interest rate, namely 10%, so it can be concluded that the project is feasible.
Payback Period
(PP)
Payback Period method functions
to calculate how quickly it takes a project to return the investment and
working capital invested. PP is obtained by dividing capital costs by income (revenue)
per year. The assessment criteria for the Payback Period method is
if PP faster than the
required time (in this research, namely the economic life of the asset), then
the investment is feasible. If otherwise, PP is obtained longer than the economic life of the
asset, then the investment is not feasible.
The PP value for the
Vertical UPT Hospital project can be calculated as follows:
Table
7
Return and balance
calculation
|
No |
Year |
Return |
Balance |
|
1 |
0 |
-Rp 1,075,850,660,000.00 |
-Rp 1,075,850,660,000.00 |
|
2 |
1 |
IDR
195,003,081,188.42 |
-Rp 880,847,578,811.58 |
|
3 |
2 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
-Rp 674,631,820,454.83 |
|
4 |
3 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
-Rp 468,416,062,098.08 |
|
5 |
4 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
-Rp 262,200,303,741.33 |
|
6 |
5 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
-Rp 55,984,545,384.58 |
|
7 |
6 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
150,231,212,972.17 |
|
8 |
7 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
356,446,971,328.92 |
|
9 |
8 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
562,662,729,685.67 |
|
10 |
9 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
768,878,488,042.42 |
|
11 |
10 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
975,094,246,399.17 |
|
12 |
11 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
1,181,310,004,755.92 |
|
13 |
12 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
1,387,525,763,112.67 |
|
14 |
13 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
1,593,741,521,469.42 |
|
15 |
14 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
1,799,957,279,826.17 |
|
16 |
15 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
2,006,173,038,182.92 |
|
17 |
16 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
2,212,388,796,539.67 |
|
18 |
17 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
2,418,604,554,896.42 |
|
19 |
18 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
2,624,820,313,253.17 |
|
20 |
19 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
2,831,036,071,609.92 |
|
21 |
20 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
3,037,251,829,966.67 |
|
22 |
21 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
3,243,467,588,323.42 |
|
23 |
22 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
3,449,683,346,680.17 |
|
24 |
23 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
3,655,899,105,036.92 |
|
25 |
24 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
3,862,114,863,393.67 |
|
26 |
25 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
4,068,330,621,750.42 |
|
27 |
26 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
4,274,546,380,107.17 |
|
28 |
27 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
4,480,762,138,463.92 |
|
29 |
28 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
4,686,977,896,820.67 |
|
30 |
29 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
4,893,193,655,177.42 |
|
31 |
30 |
IDR
206,215,758,356.75 |
IDR
5,099,409,413,534.17 |
From the table above, the Payback Period (PP) of the Vertical
UPT Hospital in Papua
|
5 |
+ |
0 -
(-55,984.545.384.58) |
x |
(6-5) |
|
150,231,212,972.17 -
(-55,984.545.384.58) |
PP ��������� =
=
5.3
So,
the Payback Period (PP) is obtained
in year 5.3, so it can be confirmed that the project is feasible to implement because the PP results are faster than the
economic life of the asset.
Sensitivity analysis
In this analysis, to
get the influence of the changes that will occur, the following conditions are
taken into account:
1.
When conditions are normal, the conditions are
in accordance with the analytical calculations above.
2.
There are fixed project costs and the
estimated benefit value will decrease by 10%.
3.
There was an increase in project costs of 10%
and the benefit value remained constant
So the calculation can be seen in the
following table:
Table
8
Sensitivity
analysis of the Papua Vertical UPT Hospital project
|
No |
Circumstances |
Method |
|||
|
NPV |
BCR |
IRR |
PP |
||
|
1 |
Normal
condition |
Rp. 433,726,940,497
(positive/eligible) |
1.06
> 1 (decent) |
19%
> 10% (feasible) |
5.3
years < 30 years (eligible) |
|
2 |
Fixed
benefit costs decreased by 10% |
Rp. 282,769,180,448
(positive/eligible) |
1.26
> 1 (decent) |
17%
> 10% (feasible) |
5.9
years < 30 years (eligible) |
|
3 |
Costs
increase by 10% fixed benefits |
Rp. 326,141,874,497
(positive/eligible) |
1.28
> 1 (decent) |
17%
> 10% (feasible) |
5.8
years < 30 years (eligible) |
Source: analysis
results
Social
Benefits
Based on the sensitivity analysis, the four methods used
by the Vertical UPT Hospital project are feasible to implement. Apart from
being financially feasible, the Vertical UPT Hospital project also has social benefits , namely:
1.
Based on the 5 (five) work priorities of the
President of the Republic of Indonesia 2019-2024 in point 2 (two), it is stated
that "Human Resource (HR) development includes ensuring the health of
pregnant women and school age children, improving the quality of education and
talent management" with development plans Papua Vertical UPT Hospital
becomes a Class A Hospital then:
a.
will facilitate
access for the community, especially Eastern Indonesia, to obtain better
services and fulfillment of health facilities and medical and non-medical
equipment.
b.
As a forum for developing research for medical
students at Cenderawasih University which focuses on
tropical medicine with superior services, namely cancer, heart, stroke and uronefrost.
c.
As a forum for training and development of
human resources in the health sector in an integrated manner.
2.
Based on the Human Development Index (HDI),
which states that residents can access development results in obtaining income,
health, education and so on, with the construction of this Vertical UPT
Hospital, then:
CONCLUSION