Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Vol. 03, No. 10, October 2023
e-ISSN: 2807-8691 | p-ISSN: 2807-839X
IJSSR Page 2523
https://doi.org/ 10.46799/ijssr.v3i10.500
This work is licensed under a Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Subsidized Diesel Fuel Distribution Post-Development Of
The New Region Authority Strategy
Abdul Halim
1
, Idqan Fahmi
2
, Arief Safari
3
School of Business, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Indonesia
1,2,3
Email : [email protected]
Keywords
ABSTRACT
fuel oil, subsidies, transportation
costs, linear programming, value
chain, business strategy
Papua has officially been divided into 4 regions, namely
Papua,Central Papua, Highlands Papua, and South Papua
effective June 2022. The supply and distribution of subsidized
fuel to each region has its own challenges, unpredicted
weather, terrain, shallow rivers and the lack of infrastructure
lead to very high operation cost. Apart from providing
subsidized fuel, Pertamina has also to sell non-subsidized fuel
in order to present in market competion among foreign
companies that sell non-subsidized fuel in Indonesia. This
research aims to evaluate, optimize and reformulate PT.
Pertamina Patra Niaga strategy in managing supply and
distribution of Subsidized Fuel to each region and business
strategy in downsteam fuels market. The scope of this
research is qualitative and quantitative descriptive and the
data used are the combination of primary and secondary data.
The primary data obtained through interviews and
observations, and the secondary data obtained from PT.
Pertamina Patra Niaga, BPH Migas, library research, journals
and other literatures. The demand forecating, external
environmental analysis (PESTEL), internal environmental
analysis (Value Chain), industrial environmental analysis
(SWOT), AHP and linear programming (LP) analysis were
carried out in order to determine the alternative strategy.
Based on the qualitative analysis, the result obtained that PT.
Pertamina Patra Niaga has the strength of providing
subsidized fuels, distribution network, sales outlets, facilities
and infrastructure for distribution of subsidized fuels to all
regions in Papua. PT. Pertamina Patra Niaga has high
opportunity of success to win the market competition. To
support the winning competition, the selected strategy that
can be implemented is optimizing the subsidized diesel fuel
distribution network and operational costs reduction
strategy.
INTRODUCTION
Papua had officially divided into four regions, Papua, Central Papua, Highlands Papua and South
Papua effective June 2022. As a new and developing province, the regional economic development will
increase gradually (Ali & Purwandi, 2017). The potential of natural resources which at that time had not
developed optimally, with the establishment of the New Authority Region into four provinces will
receive more attention to be developed in order to increase the economic growth of these provinces so
as to support the acceleration of regional development (Alashhab & Mlybari, 2021; Mollik, Rashid,
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IJSSR Page 2524
Hasanuzzaman, Karim, & Hosenuzzaman, 2016; Moner-Girona et al., 2018; Nurlathifah, Pudjiantoro,
Ammar, Sutopo, & Yuniaristanto, 2020; Salazar, Ramos-Martín, & Lomas, 2018).
Growth in economic sectors such as trade, industry, mining, plantations, agriculture and
fisheries will increase the need for supporting facilities and infrastructure, such as housing land, rice
fields, buildings, roads, transportation facilities (goods and people), electricity, fuel originating from
from the earth such as fuel oil and natural gas, as well as clean water (Hatefi, 2018)(Liperda et al., 2022).
In economic development, infrastructure for transportation both land, sea and air must be fulfilled so
that economic activity for the distribution of goods and services between regions in Papua, Central
Papua, Highlands Papua, South Papua, and distribute goods and services to other provinces in Indonesia
or for export purposes can be achieved (Djati, 2007)(Kushariyadi & Sugito, 2022)(Prawin, Fallo,
Metboki, & Sipayung, 2022).
In order to rationalize energy distribution in all regions of Indonesia, the Indonesian
government made a policy against the high fuel price in several regions, especially in Eastern Indonesia
(Asri, 2017)(Prasetyo & Usman, 2023). Undeveloped, most-outer and most-front end (3T) area are the
focus of the Government in implementing the distribution of Subsidized Fuel in the Provinces of Papua,
Central Papua, Highlands Papua and South Papua. In addition, aims to support regional development to
improve the economy and wealthfare the Papuan population after the development of a new authority
area, a strategy for distributing subsidized fuel demand with high expecation that the distribution of
subsidized fuel reach and meet the fuel demand in Papua (Ayuningtyas, Harianto, & Safari, 2019)(Miller
& Dess, 1993)(Adiliya, 2019).
Sumber: www.bi.go.id
Figure 1. Graph 1 GRDP development on the business field side
Prior to formulating strategy of subsidized fuel distribution, the demand forecasting analysis
will be carried out for estimating subsidized fuel up to year of 2025 and assessment of the storage
capacity, fuel terminals, distribution networks and gas station (SPBU) that are currently operating
(Khair, Fahmi, Al Hakim, & Rahim, 2017)(Sa’adah, Fauzi, & Juanda, 2017).
METHODS
The method used in this study includes several methods of analysis (Ul Haq, 2020). Descriptive
analysis methods were used for the first and second research purposes, namely to analyze the demand
forecasting, supply and distribution network of subsidized fuel in the four provinces (Adli, Prastyasari,
Handani, & Artana, 2022)(Grant, Wong, & Trautrims, 2017)(Suparjo, 2017)(Arif, 2018). Descriptive
analysis in writing is used to provide an explanation of the research data (Arikunto, 2006). The third
research objective is to formulate a distribution strategy for subsidized fuel by using an analysis of
International Journal of Social Service and Research,
Abdul Halim
1
, Idqan Fahmi
2
, Arief Safari
3
IJSSR Page 2525
internal and external factors that affect the company (Aminudin, 2005)(Irawan, 2018). The formulated
distribution strategy is then validated using the optimization results of linear programming (LP). Data
processing in this study uses forecasting methods (forecasting - time series), PESTLE, Value Chain, EFE,
IFE, IE, SWOT, AHP, Linear Programming and Ms. Office Excel (Gurl, 2017)(Hutasuhut, Anggraeni, &
Tyasnurita, 2014)(Kusuma, Roestam, & Pasca, 2020)(Cooper & Schindler, 2003).
RESULTS
The fuel subsidy policy presents since the government of the President of the Republic of
Indonesia, Sukarno. In 1966 the government implemented subsidies for three types of fuel, namely
Premium, Solar and Kerosene. Along with the development of new authority areas, economic, social and
cultural developments, people's welfare, technology and so on, the Indonesian government continues to
improve the regulations and technology for controlling the distribution of subsidized fuel so that it is
right on target and effective. Every year the Indonesian government determines the value and amount
of subsidized fuel by considering the inflation rate, GDP, realization, purchasing power, motor vehicle
growth, poverty ratio, and since 2020 the distribution of subsidized fuel to the public has been
determined at the delivery point, namely the nozzle used in Gas Station (Statistik, 2021). The
development of new authority areas requires support from a sustainable energy supply, one of which is
subsidized fuel. Sustainable provision of subsidized fuel requires adequate means and facilities so that
subsidized fuel can be distributed to the community in an appropriate manner (Chopra & Meindl, 2001).
Therefore, good planning is needed in terms of storage facilities, distribution networks and gas stations.
Forecasting of Diesel Subsidized Fuel Demand
In this study, the distribution of data on the realization and quota of subsidized diesel fuel from
2020 to 2022 in the provinces of Papua, Central Papua, Highlands Papua and South Papua were obtained
from the Downstream Oil and Gas Regulatory Agency. This data is validated first to ensure that it meets
statistical criteria by looking for the values of the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error
(MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage error (MAPE)(Robial, 2018).
Table 1. Data validation of the realization and quota of subsidized diesel fuel
Validation Method
Papua
Papua Mountains
South Papua
Central Papua
MAPE
%
MA
15.229
29.980
16.212
15.154
WMA
14.302
26.788
15.603
14.443
Exp. Smoothing
10.575
10.911
16.235
7.383
Forecasting the need for subsidized diesel fuel in four provinces is calculated using time series
forecasting and exponential smoothing based on the Microsoft Excel application. The decision to use
time series forecasting and exponential smoothing is based on the lowest MAPE results after comparing
it with other methods such as Moving Average (MA) and Weighted Moving Average (WMA) (Table
1)(Santiari & Rahayuda, 2021).
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Table 2. Forecasting the Need for Subsidized Diesel Fuel with the Forecasting Time Series and
Exponential Smoothing Methods
Province
Year
Demand Forecasting (Unit Kilo Liter)
Low
Medium
High
Papua
2023
72,053
87,281
102,510
2024
64,761
88,264
111,767
2025
59,510
89,246
118,983
Papua Pegunungan
2023
8,932
10,387
11,841
2024
9,329
11,177
13,025
2025
9,768
11,967
14,165
Papua Selatan
2023
52,371
57,467
62,562
2024
55,314
60,760
66,205
2025
58,206
64,052
69,899
Papua Tengah
2023
43,099
47,604
52,108
2024
45,516
50,027
54,538
2025
47,921
52,451
56,980
Source: BPH Migas, Data processed by Researchers
The validation of demand forecasting for subsidized diesel fuel above, it shows that the largest
MAPE value of 16.235% or far below 50% and it can be stated that the distribution of data from 2020 to
2022 can be used for predicting the demand for subsidized fuel in each province up to 2025.
Storage Tanks Capacity
Demand of subsidized diesel fuel is supplied from TBBM owned by PT. Pertamina Patra Niaga
located in Wayame, Tual and PT. Pertamina Indonesia Refinery (RU Kasim)(2022). These three TBBM
suppliers are the main TBBM for fuel distribution to the Eastern region of Indonesia, some of them some
of them supply Biak, Merauke, Nabire, Serui, Jayapura and Timika.
Table 3. Main TBBM capacity and subsidized fuel demand
TBBM
Storage Tank
Capacity at Main
TBBM (KL)
Storage Tank
Capacity at Hub
TBBM (KL)
Total Demand
Subsidize Diesel Fuel
per Month (KL)
FT TUAL
10,000
- FT MERAUKE
8,343
3,208
- JOBBER TIMIKA
1,500
1,285
Subtotal
10,000
9,843
4,492
FT WAYAME
42,000
- FT BIAK
7,954
558
- FT NABIRE
5,455
1,297
- FT SERUI
1,093
171
- IT JAYAPURA
10,684
3,493
Subtotal
42,000
25,186
5,519
RU KASIM
3,022
- IT JAYAPURA
2,000
1,599
Subtotal
3,022
2,000
1,599
GRAND TOTAL CAPACITY
55,022
37,029
11,610
Based on the total capacity of the storage tanks at Main TBBM (Table 3), TBBM Hub and the total
demand for Subsidized Solar Fuel (Table 4), it can be concluded that the storage tank capacity is
sufficient to fulfill subsidized gas oil demand.
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1
, Idqan Fahmi
2
, Arief Safari
3
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Table 4. Transportation mode for distributing subsidized fuel to gas stations
Transportatiob Mode
Capacity
(KL)
Maximum
Ritase per
Month
Distribution Areas
Biak
Serui
Jayapura
Jobber
Timika
Nabire
Merauke
Air Transport
16
80
2
Air Transport
6
60
1
1
Air Transport
4
80
2
1
Air Transport
1.2
80
3
2
Marine Tanker
350
4
1
1
1
1
1
Road Tanker
4
24
5
5
Road Tanker
5
24
6
5
8
10
10
32
Road Tanker
8
24
10
Road Tanker
10
24
2
12
5
5
4
Road Tanker
16
24
9
4
4
Road Tanker
20
24
1
1
Total Trasportation
Unit
9
6
37
27
28
48
Total Capacity
KL
2,600
2,000
11,144
6,616
6,488
8,480
Total Demand
KL
558
171
5,092
1,285
1,297
3,208
External Factor Strategic
Analysis of PT activities. Pertamina Patra Niaga is divided into two categories, namely main
activities and supporting activities. The main activities consist of inbound logistics, operations, outbound
logistics, marketing and sales, and service. Meanwhile, supporting activities consist of infrastructure,
human resource management, technology development and purchasing. PESTLE analysis is used to analyze
external factors (Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Legal and Environmental) that influence a
company. PESTLE analysis is carried out independently of external factors and their impacts so that
companies can use them to create various different scenarios.
PESTLE analysis is used to analyze external factors that influence a company and then determine
the company's strength so that it can compete with its competitors. The results of the PESTLE analysis are
summarized in Table 5.
Table 5. Summary of PESTLE Analysis
Analysis
External Environmental Factors
Implications for Company
Opportunity/Threats
Politic
Government determination of
low selling price of subsidized
fuel.
Price disparity is getting higher, consumption of
subsidized fuel is increasing, sales of non-subsidized
fuel are decreasing
Opportunity
World oil prices are unstable.
Fuel production costs from refineries increase.
Threats
Economy
The growth of motorized
vehicles requires quality fuel.
Increased purchasing power for quality fuel and NFR
products.
Opportunity
Availability of substitute
products for subsidized fuel.
Marketing alternative fuels and NFR that are quality
and environmentally friendly.
Opportunity
Social
New Area Development (DOB)
Increase in non-cash purchases, prefer quality
products that are quick to obtain and safe to use.
Opportunity
Technology
Technological development.
The use of social media, online services throughout the
region, guarantees security and is easily accessible to
all groups.
Threats
Petroleum production is
declining both in Indonesia and
in the world.
Increasing the use of biofuel and ethanol as a fuel
mixture, this will increase the company's operational
costs.
Threats
Legal
Central and regional permits do
not yet support each other.
Slowing down the licensing process to develop
marketing tools and facilities.
Threats
Environment
Fuel supply from quality
imports.
Development of fuel products using Biofuel or
Bioethanol and NFR products
Opportunity
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The quality guarantee offered
by competing companies is
higher.
Maintaining fuel quality to consumer users by
implementing strict QC.
Threats
The external environmental strength factors identified from the PESTLE analysis are then used to
analyze PT's external strategic factors. Pertamina Patra Niaga uses the EFE matrix, obtaining a total
weighted value of 3.40 (Table 6). This value shows that the company's external conditions are in a moderate
position in responding to opportunities and threats.
Table 6. External Factor Evaluation Matrix (EFE)
Key External Factors
Weight
Rangking
Weighted
Score
Opportunities
1
New Authority Development (DOB)
0.12
4
0.47
2
Government determination of low selling price of subsidized fuel.
0.09
3
0.28
3
Fuel supply from quality imports.
0.09
3
0.28
4
Availability of substitute products for subsidized fuel.
0.09
3
0.28
5
The growth of motorized vehicles requires quality fuel.
0.12
4
0.47
Subtotal
0.51
Threats
1
Some of central and regional regulations have not yet align.
0.07
2
0.14
2
Technological development.
0.12
4
0.47
3
World oil prices are unstable.
0.09
3
0.28
4
Petroleum production is declining both in Indonesia and in the world.
0.12
4
0.47
5
The quality guarantee offered by competing companies is higher.
0.09
3
0.28
Subtotal
0.49
Total
1.00
3.40
Internal Factor Strategic
Analysis of PT's internal activities. Pertamina Patra Niaga is divided into two categories, namely
main activities and supporting activities. The main activities consist of inbound logistics, operations,
outbound logistics, marketing and sales, and service. Supporting activities consist of infrastructure, human
resource management, technology development and purchasing. From the results of the value chain
analysis, five competitive advantages and five weaknesses were identified (Figure 1).
Figure 2. Summary of Value Chain Analysis
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Abdul Halim
1
, Idqan Fahmi
2
, Arief Safari
3
IJSSR Page 2529
The five strengths and five weaknesses identified from the results of the value chain analysis are
then used as the company's main internal factors using the IFE matrix (Table 7).
Tabel 7. Internal Factor Evaluation Matrix (IFE)
Key Internal Factors
Weight
Rangking
Weighted
Score
Strenghts
1
Quality Non-Subsidized Fuel Products.
0.10
3
0.29
2
The service, facilities and facilities at the gas station are satisfactory.
0.10
3
0.29
3
Experienced and qualified Staff.
0.10
4
0.39
4
Environmentally friendly fuel and NFR products.
0.12
4
0.49
5
Use of reliable technology information.
0.12
4
0.49
Subtotal
0.54
Weakness
1
PT Pertamina Patra Niaga's non-subsidized fuel prices are more expensive.
0.07
1
0.07
2
Fuel Promotion Program and NFR Products that have not been maximized.
0.10
2
0.20
3
Gas station operating hours are not optimal.
0.10
1
0.10
4
Limited number and capacity of transportation modes.
0.12
2
0.24
5
Reliance to limited local refinery capabilities.
0.07
2
0.15
Subtotal
0.46
Total
1.00
2.71
The results of the IFE matrix analysis show that the total score from the IFE matrix is 2.71. This
shows that internal conditions are in a strong position in utilizing strengths and overcoming weaknesses.
Company Position and Alternative Strategy
The results of the EFE and IFE matrices are then used to map the company's position using the IE
matrix. It can be seen that the company is in quadrant II (Figure 2), where according to David (2011) the
company is in a state of growth and build.
Figure 3. IE Matrix PT. Pertamina Patra Niaga
The TOWS matrix is a continuation of EFE, IFE and IE, namely by matching opportunity, threat,
strength and weakness factors to obtain alternative strategies for the company. Eight alternative strategies
that can be used by companies have been identified (Table 8). Each alternative strategy is then validated by
comparing it with the results of optimization of the subsidized fuel distribution network.
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Figure 4. TOWS Matrix PT. Pertamina Patra Niaga
Strategy Priority
An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) multi-criteria decision-making methodology is then developed
to take into TOWS result. By using AHP methodology the strategy of optimizing the distribution network
and reducing operational costs for sending diesel fuel subsidies is the main priority factor, having the
highest priority ranking of 16.94% compared to other strategies. The second priority was identified as a
strategy to increase the supply of quality fuel using the latest technology with a priority ranking of 15.16%.
The third ranking priority was identified in the strategy of utilizing alternative fuels (FAME and Ethanol) to
reduce the use of fossil fuels.
Figure 5. Matrixs AHP
1
Quality Non-Subsidized Fuel Products. 1
PT Pertamina Patra Niaga's non-subsidized
fuel prices are more expensive.
2
The service, facilities and facilities at the gas
station are satisfactory.
2
Fuel Promotion Program and NFR Products
that have not been maximized.
3
Has experienced human resources. 3 Gas station operating hours are not optimal.
4
Has environmentally friendly fuel and NFR
products.
4
Limited size and capacity of fuel
transportation.
5
Use of reliable information technology. 5 Reliance on limited local refinery capabilities.
1
New Area Development (DOB)
2
Government determination of low selling price of
subsidized fuel.
3
Fuel supply from quality imports.
4
Availability of substitute products for subsidized
fuel.
5
The growth of motorized vehicles requires quality
fuel.
1
Some of central and regional regulations have not
yet align.
2
Technological development.
3
The world oil price is not stable.
4
Petroleum production is declining both in Indonesia
and in the world.
5
The quality guarantee offered by competing
companies is higher.
3. Streamline distribution operational costs by using
the latest technology (S2, S3, S5, T1, T2, T3)
4. Utilizing alternative fuels (FAME and Ethanol) to
reduce the use of fossil fuels (S1, S4, T4, T5)
7. Improve human resources competency (W3,
W4, T1, T5)
8. Rationalize R & D differentiation of BBM and
NFR products (W1, W2, W5, T2, T3, T4)
1. Marketing subsidized fuel, non-subsidized fuel
and NFR products that are having quality and
environmentally friendly at gas stations (S1, S4, O3,
O4)
2. Improve integrated information systems that are
easy to access and secure (S2, S3, S5, O1, O2, O5)
5. Optimize distribution networks and reduce
operational costs (W1, W4, W5, O1, O3, O4)
6. Increase promotion, services and facilities (W2,
W3, O2, O5)
THREATS (T)
Strategy - ST
Strategy - WT
STRENGTH (S)
WEAKNESS (W)
OPPORTUNITIES (O)
Stratergy - SO
Strategy - WO
EXTERNAL FACTORS
INTERNAL FACTORS
Matrix
Marketing subsidized
fuel, non-subsidized
fuel and NFR
Improve integrated
information systems
that are easy to
Streamline
distribution
operational costs by
Utilizing alternative
fuels (FAME and
Ethanol) to reduce
Optimize distribution
networks and reduce
operational costs
Increase promotion,
services and facilities
Improve human
resources
competency
Rationalize R & D
differentiation of BBM
and NFR products
0
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Marketing
subsidized fuel,
1 - 4/5 1/2 2/3 5/7 1 2/3 8/9 1 2/5 - -
11.08%
Improve
integrated
2 1 1/4 - 7/9 7/9 7/9 1 1 1/7 1 3/4 - -
12.41%
Streamline
distribution
3 1 5/6 1 2/7 - 1 5/6 1 1/4 1 1/4 1 6/7 - -
15.16%
Utilizing
alternative fuels
4 1 1/2 1 2/7 1 - 4/5 1 1/3 1 1/3 1 2/3 - -
14.54%
Optimize
distribution
5 1 2/5 1 2/7 1 1/5 1 1/4 - 2 1 1/9 2 3/8 - -
16.94%
Increase
promotion,
6 3/5 1 4/5 3/4 1/2 - 1 1 - -
10.10%
Improve human
resources
7
1 1/9 7/8 4/5 3/4 8/9 1 - 1 4/5 - -
12.01%
Rationalize R &
D differentiation
8
5/7 4/7 1/2 3/5 3/7 1 5/9 - - -
7.76%
0
9
- - - - - - - - - -
0.00%
0
10
- - - - - - - - - -
0.00%
normalized
principal
Eigenvector
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1
, Idqan Fahmi
2
, Arief Safari
3
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Distribution Network Optimization
Distribution network optimization is carried out for land, sea and air transportation from TBBM
Utama to TBBM Hub, and from TBBM Hub to gas stations. In linear programming, the objective function
and constraints are determined, namely minimizing total transportation costs while meeting the
constraints on the number of deliveries being less than or equal to the amount of fuel at the TBBM Hub and
the number of deliveries being less than or equal to the fuel requirements at gas stations. The mathematical
model of the objective function and its constrains are as follows:
Figure 6. Reprsentation of distribution
problem
Objective function:
Constrains:
Explanation:
m = TBBM Hub
n = SPBU
c
ij
= transportation cost per liter
x
ij
= volume of supply BBM Subsidi
S
i
= volume of BBM Subsidi at TBBM Hub
d
j
= volume of demand at SPBU
Table 8. Comparison of Average Ritases per Month
Transportation
Mode
Capacity
(KL)
Total
(Unit)
Total
Volume
(KL)
Before Optimization
After Optimization
Average Ritase
per Month
Percentage of
Utilization
Average Ritase
per Month
Percentage of
Utilization
Road Tanker
4
10
40
47
5.19%
90
9.93%
Road Tanker
5
71
355
394
43.49%
469
51.77%
Road Tanker
8
10
80
129
14.24%
38
4.19%
Road Tanker
10
28
280
251
27.70%
183
20.20%
Road Tanker
16
17
272
55
6.07%
128
14.13%
Road Tanker
20
2
40
30
3.31%
34
3.75%
Optimizing the road tankers transportation modes, it is found that the average potential
efficiency for operational costs reduction per month is IDR. 220,840,000.
CONCLUSION
Forecasting the need for subsidized fuel using time series forecasting analysis and exponential
smoothing shows that the need for fuel up to 2025 in kilo liters is 89,246 (Papua Province), 11,967
(Mountain Papua Province), 64,052 (South Papua Province) and 52,452 (Central Papua Province), and
the average need for gas oil subsidized fuel in each province has increased from 1.1% to 7.1%.
The total tank capacity at TBBM Utama is 55,022 kilo liters, sufficient to supply subsidized fuel
to TBBM Hub amounting to 37,029 kilo liters spread across four provinces, sufficient to store the need
for gas oil subsidized fuel from each gas station with a total requirement of 11,610 kilo liters per month.
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The current capacity of transportation modes is very sufficient, but the distribution of
subsidized fuel often experiences delays. This is caused by a lack of control over some land, sea and air
transportation modes, land transportation modes that are suitable for operation, vehicles used for the
industrial sector, limited number of drivers, constraints on spare parts availability and vehicle age. From
optimizing the distribution mode using land transportation, the potential for operational transportation
cost efficiency of Rp. 220,840,000 per month.
Selection of strategy from eight alternative strategies obtained from the TOWS Matrix using
AHP, the strategy chosen is optimize the distribution network and reduce operational costs strategy.
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