Subsidized Diesel Fuel Distribution Post-Development Of The New Region Authority Strategy

ABSTRACT


INTRODUCTION
Papua had officially divided into four regions, Papua, Central Papua, Highlands Papua and South Papua effective June 2022.As a new and developing province, the regional economic development will increase gradually (Ali & Purwandi, 2017).The potential of natural resources which at that time had not developed optimally, with the establishment of the New Authority Region into four provinces will receive more attention to be developed in order to increase the economic growth of these provinces so as to support the acceleration of regional development (Alashhab & Mlybari, 2021;Mollik, Rashid,

Figure 1. Graph 1 GRDP development on the business field side
Prior to formulating strategy of subsidized fuel distribution, the demand forecasting analysis will be carried out for estimating subsidized fuel up to year of 2025 and assessment of the storage capacity, fuel terminals, distribution networks and gas station (SPBU) that are currently operating (Khair, Fahmi, Al Hakim, & Rahim, 2017) (Sa'adah, Fauzi, & Juanda, 2017).

METHODS
The method used in this study includes several methods of analysis (Ul Haq, 2020).Descriptive analysis methods were used for the first and second research purposes, namely to analyze the demand forecasting, supply and distribution network of subsidized fuel in the four provinces (Adli, Prastyasari, Handani, & Artana, 2022) (Grant, Wong, & Trautrims, 2017) (Suparjo, 2017) (Arif, 2018).Descriptive analysis in writing is used to provide an explanation of the research data (Arikunto, 2006).The third research objective is to formulate a distribution strategy for subsidized fuel by using an analysis of internal and external factors that affect the company (Aminudin, 2005) (Irawan, 2018).The formulated distribution strategy is then validated using the optimization results of linear programming (LP).Data processing in this study uses forecasting methods (forecasting -time series), PESTLE, Value Chain, EFE, IFE, IE, SWOT, AHP, Linear Programming and Ms. Office Excel (Gurl, 2017) (Hutasuhut, Anggraeni, & Tyasnurita, 2014) (Kusuma, Roestam, & Pasca, 2020) (Cooper & Schindler, 2003).

RESULTS
The fuel subsidy policy presents since the government of the President of the Republic of Indonesia, Sukarno.In 1966 the government implemented subsidies for three types of fuel, namely Premium, Solar and Kerosene.Along with the development of new authority areas, economic, social and cultural developments, people's welfare, technology and so on, the Indonesian government continues to improve the regulations and technology for controlling the distribution of subsidized fuel so that it is right on target and effective.Every year the Indonesian government determines the value and amount of subsidized fuel by considering the inflation rate, GDP, realization, purchasing power, motor vehicle growth, poverty ratio, and since 2020 the distribution of subsidized fuel to the public has been determined at the delivery point, namely the nozzle used in Gas Station (Statistik, 2021).The development of new authority areas requires support from a sustainable energy supply, one of which is subsidized fuel.Sustainable provision of subsidized fuel requires adequate means and facilities so that subsidized fuel can be distributed to the community in an appropriate manner (Chopra & Meindl, 2001).Therefore, good planning is needed in terms of storage facilities, distribution networks and gas stations.

Forecasting of Diesel Subsidized Fuel Demand
In this study, the distribution of data on the realization and quota of subsidized diesel fuel from 2020 to 2022 in the provinces of Papua, Central Papua, Highlands Papua and South Papua were obtained from the Downstream Oil and Gas Regulatory Agency.This data is validated first to ensure that it meets statistical criteria by looking for the values of the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage error (MAPE) (Robial, 2018).Forecasting the need for subsidized diesel fuel in four provinces is calculated using time series forecasting and exponential smoothing based on the Microsoft Excel application.The decision to use time series forecasting and exponential smoothing is based on the lowest MAPE results after comparing it with other methods such as Moving Average (MA) and Weighted Moving Average (WMA) (Table 1) (Santiari & Rahayuda, 2021).The validation of demand forecasting for subsidized diesel fuel above, it shows that the largest MAPE value of 16.235% or far below 50% and it can be stated that the distribution of data from 2020 to 2022 can be used for predicting the demand for subsidized fuel in each province up to 2025.

Storage Tanks Capacity
Demand of subsidized diesel fuel is supplied from TBBM owned by PT.Pertamina Patra Niaga located in Wayame, Tual and PT.Pertamina Indonesia Refinery (RU Kasim)(2022).These three TBBM suppliers are the main TBBM for fuel distribution to the Eastern region of Indonesia, some of them some of them supply Biak, Merauke, Nabire, Serui, Jayapura and Timika.Based on the total capacity of the storage tanks at Main TBBM (Table 3), TBBM Hub and the total demand for Subsidized Solar Fuel (Table 4), it can be concluded that the storage tank capacity is sufficient to fulfill subsidized gas oil demand.

International Journal of Social Service and Research,
Abdul Halim 1 , Idqan Fahmi 2 , Arief Safari 3 IJSSR Page 2527 PESTLE analysis is used to analyze external factors that influence a company and then determine the company's strength so that it can compete with its competitors.The results of the PESTLE analysis are summarized in Table 5. Increasing the use of biofuel and ethanol as a fuel mixture, this will increase the company's operational costs.

Legal
Central and regional permits do not yet support each other.
Slowing down the licensing process to develop marketing tools and facilities.

Threats
Environment Fuel supply from quality imports.The quality guarantee offered by competing companies is higher.

Development of fuel products using
Maintaining fuel quality to consumer users by implementing strict QC.

Threats
The external environmental strength factors identified from the PESTLE analysis are then used to analyze PT's external strategic factors.Pertamina Patra Niaga uses the EFE matrix, obtaining a total weighted value of 3.40 (Table 6).This value shows that the company's external conditions are in a moderate position in responding to opportunities and threats.

Internal Factor Strategic
Analysis of PT's internal activities.Pertamina Patra Niaga is divided into two categories, namely main activities and supporting activities.The main activities consist of inbound logistics, operations, outbound logistics, marketing and sales, and service.Supporting activities consist of infrastructure, human resource management, technology development and purchasing.From the results of the value chain analysis, five competitive advantages and five weaknesses were identified (Figure 1).The five strengths and five weaknesses identified from the results of the value chain analysis are then used as the company's main internal factors using the IFE matrix (Table 7).The results of the IFE matrix analysis show that the total score from the IFE matrix is 2.71.This shows that internal conditions are in a strong position in utilizing strengths and overcoming weaknesses.

Company Position and Alternative Strategy
The results of the EFE and IFE matrices are then used to map the company's position using the IE matrix.It can be seen that the company is in quadrant II (Figure 2), where according to David (2011) the company is in a state of growth and build.

Figure 3. IE Matrix PT. Pertamina Patra Niaga
The TOWS matrix is a continuation of EFE, IFE and IE, namely by matching opportunity, threat, strength and weakness factors to obtain alternative strategies for the company.Eight alternative strategies that can be used by companies have been identified (Table 8).Each alternative strategy is then validated by comparing it with the results of optimization of the subsidized fuel distribution network.An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) multi-criteria decision-making methodology is then developed to take into TOWS result.By using AHP methodology the strategy of optimizing the distribution network and reducing operational costs for sending diesel fuel subsidies is the main priority factor, having the highest priority ranking of 16.94% compared to other strategies.The second priority was identified as a strategy to increase the supply of quality fuel using the latest technology with a priority ranking of 15.16%.The third ranking priority was identified in the strategy of utilizing alternative fuels (FAME and Ethanol) to reduce the use of fossil fuels.
1 PT Pertamina Patra Niaga's non-subsidized fuel prices are more expensive.
2 The service, facilities and facilities at the gas station are satisfactory.
2 Fuel Promotion Program and NFR Products that have not been maximized.
3 Has experienced human resources.
3 Gas station operating hours are not optimal.
4 Has environmentally friendly fuel and NFR products.
4 Limited size and capacity of fuel transportation.
5 Use of reliable information technology.5 Reliance on limited local refinery capabilities.
1 New Area Development (DOB) 2 Government determination of low selling price of subsidized fuel.
3 Fuel supply from quality imports.
4 Availability of substitute products for subsidized fuel.
5 The growth of motorized vehicles requires quality fuel.
1 Some of central and regional regulations have not yet align.
3 The world oil price is not stable.
4 Petroleum production is declining both in Indonesia and in the world.
5 The quality guarantee offered by competing companies is higher.Distribution Network Optimization Distribution network optimization is carried out for land, sea and air transportation from TBBM Utama to TBBM Hub, and from TBBM Hub to gas stations.In linear programming, the objective function and constraints are determined, namely minimizing total transportation costs while meeting the constraints on the number of deliveries being less than or equal to the amount of fuel at the TBBM Hub and the number of deliveries being less than or equal to the fuel requirements at gas stations.The mathematical model of the objective function and its constrains are as follows:  Optimizing the road tankers transportation modes, it is found that the average potential efficiency for operational costs reduction per month is IDR.220,840,000.

CONCLUSION
Forecasting the need for subsidized fuel using time series forecasting analysis and exponential smoothing shows that the need for fuel up to 2025 in kilo liters is 89,246 (Papua Province), 11,967 (Mountain Papua Province), 64,052 (South Papua Province) and 52,452 (Central Papua Province), and the average need for gas oil subsidized fuel in each province has increased from 1.1% to 7.1%.
The total tank capacity at TBBM Utama is 55,022 kilo liters, sufficient to supply subsidized fuel to TBBM Hub amounting to 37,029 kilo liters spread across four provinces, sufficient to store the need for gas oil subsidized fuel from each gas station with a total requirement of 11,610 kilo liters per month.The current capacity of transportation modes is very sufficient, but the distribution of subsidized fuel often experiences delays.This is caused by a lack of control over some land, sea and air transportation modes, land transportation modes that are suitable for operation, vehicles used for the industrial sector, limited number of drivers, constraints on spare parts availability and vehicle age.From optimizing the distribution mode using land transportation, the potential for operational transportation cost efficiency of Rp. 220,840,000 per month.

International
Selection of strategy from eight alternative strategies obtained from the TOWS Matrix using AHP, the strategy chosen is optimize the distribution network and reduce operational costs strategy.
Biofuel or Bioethanol and NFR products Opportunity International Journal of Social Service and Research https://ijssr.ridwaninstitute.co.id/IJSSR Page 2528

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. Summary of Value Chain Analysis Figure 4. TOWS Matrix PT.Pertamina Patra Niaga Strategy PriorityAn analytic hierarchy process (AHP) multi-criteria decision-making methodology is then developed to take into TOWS result.By using AHP methodology the strategy of optimizing the distribution network and reducing operational costs for sending diesel fuel subsidies is the main priority factor, having the highest priority ranking of 16.94% compared to other strategies.The second priority was identified as a strategy to increase the supply of quality fuel using the latest technology with a priority ranking of 15.16%.The third ranking priority was identified in the strategy of utilizing alternative fuels (FAME and Ethanol) to reduce the use of fossil fuels.

Table 4 . Transportation mode for distributing subsidized fuel to gas stations
Analysis of PT activities.Pertamina Patra Niaga is divided into two categories, namely main activities and supporting activities.The main activities consist of inbound logistics, operations, outbound logistics, marketing and sales, and service.Meanwhile, supporting activities consist of infrastructure, human resource management, technology development and purchasing.PESTLE analysis is used to analyze external factors (Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Legal and Environmental) that influence a company.PESTLE analysis is carried out independently of external factors and their impacts so that companies can use them to create various different scenarios.