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Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Turkey's Economic

Stability

Salma Salsabila

, Mohammad Izdiyan Muttaqin

School of Strategic and Global Studies, University of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia

Email: salma.salsabila12@ui.ac.id, moh.izdiyan@ui.ac.id

Keywords

ABSTRACT

Conflict, Economic Stability, State

Economy

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has significant

implications for the stability of global order. Turkey, as a

country that has profound relations with Russia and Ukraine,

is also affected by the conflict, which threatens the country's

economic sector currently undergoing reform. The Turkish

government, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan,

strategically seeks to position itself as a mediator in the

conflict to achieve a peaceful resolution that will ultimately

impact the restoration of productive relations with Russia and

Ukraine. The author employs a qualitative research approach

with analytical descriptive methods that utilize various

sources such as journals, books, scientific articles, media and

other sources that have undergone a rigorous study process.

This study employs the theory of national interest and rational

choice to observe and identify President Erdogan's decision-

making process in responding to the Russian- Ukrainian

conflict in a constructive and balanced manner, without

showing dominant partiality to either party. The results

indicate that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had

a significant impact on the stability of the Turkish economy.

In response, Turkey has strategically implemented

restorative- based policies to rejuvenate productive relations

with the two conflicting countries.

INTRODUCTION

Turkey has historically maintained strong relations with Russia and Ukraine across various

strategic sectors. Based on the author's observations, Turkey's track record of relations with Russia

and Ukraine has been quite complex and dynamic over time. In detail, relations between Turkey and

Russia tend to exhibit higher dynamics when compared to the relatively more stable relationship with

Ukraine. Since Turkey was in the form of the Ottoman Empire and Russia was still in the form of the

Russian Empire, the two sides have engaged in war eight times. Geographical conditions and

geopolitical situations at that time consistently placed Turkey and Russia in opposing camps, leading

to conflicts between them. The two countries reached a point of peace for the first time in the 1920s

when Russia, then the Soviet Union, recognized the secular government of Turkey led by Mustafa

Kemal Attaturk. However, relations between the two countries again heated up when Turkey joined

the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) leading these two countries to renewed conflicts and

feuds. The most recent development in the conflict between the two countries occured in 2015 when

a Russian Su-24 aircraft was shot down by the Turkish Air Force on the Turkish-Syrian border. This

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has resulted in Russia's sanctions against Turkey, including embargoes on food products and travel

bans.

Turkey and Ukraine have relatively more stable relations in terms of historical, geographical,

and cultural aspects. In fact, Turkey was one of the first countries to recognize Ukraine’s independence

on December 16, 1991 followed by the establishment of formal diplomatic relations on February 3,

1992. Relations between the two countries were also strengthened by the establishment of the High-

Level Strategic Council (HLSC) in leading to various cooperative initiatives, including the

implementation of a visa-free policy in 2017 to strengthen relations between Turkey and Ukraine. In

detail, Turkey maintains representative offices in Ukraine including the Embassy in Kiev, the Consulate

General in Odesa, and the Honorary Consulate in Simferopol and Kharkiv. Ukraine, on the other hand,

has Embassies in Ankara, Consulates General in Istanbul and Antalya, as well as Honorary Consulates

in Bursa, Anakkale, Dalaman.

A contextual and comprehensive understanding of Turkey's historical relations with Russia

and Ukraine will help the author analyze how Turkey would position itself if the two countries were

involved in the conflict. It will also provide a rational explanation of the impact of the conflict on Turkey

itself. This understanding is fundamental, considering that both Russia and Ukraine play significant

roles in their respective capabilities for the Turkish economy. To underscore the significance of

Turkey's relations further in the context of economic cooperation, the author will describe various

collaborations that have been established between Turkey and Russia as well as Ukraine.

The economy, trade and energy sectors are the main driving forces behind relations between

Turkey and Russia. It is noteworthy that Russia is one of Turkey's most important trading partners

with the trade volume between the two countries reaching 26,309 billion USD in 2019. In addition, the

export value of Turkey and Russia in the same year also reached 3,854 billion USD and the imports

reached 22,454 billion USD. In terms of infrastructure, there are about 1972 projects worth 75.7 billion

USD that have been completed by Turkish contractors in Russia. On the investment side, the two

countries have established various funding cooperation reaching 10 billion USD. Several Turkish

companies operating in Russia include Anadolu Efes (alcohol industry), ENKA and Renaissance

(construction industry), Hayat (home industry and furniture products) and Zorlu (energy industry).

On the other hand, Russian investments in Turkey tend to focus more on the energy, manufacturing

and automotive sectors, involving approximately 2000 companies operating on Turkish territory. The

energy sector is one of the main pillars of Turkish-Russian economic relations due to the asymmetric

interdependence between the two countries. The Turkish government has leaned towards policies

positioning the country to rely on Russia's dominance in gas and energy markets. This dependence

became evident when Turkey handed over the authority and responsibility for the construction of their

first nuclear power plant to Russia through the Rosatom company. Turkey itself holds strong ambitions

in the development of the energy sector with several main objectives, including meeting domestic

energy demand to encourage accelerated economic growth and making Turkey an important energy

transit country and a significant energy center in the region. As a result, energy policy in Turkey is

closely intertwined with domestic policy and foreign policy. In detail, Turkey imports 75% of its

primary needs, consisting of natural gas and petroleum. Russia plays a significant role in meeting

Turkey's requirements for these two strategic commodities. Russia even owns a concession for a

Turkish nuclear power plant called Akkuyu, an arrangement that was once highlighted by various

observers as a significant development in the energy sector, potentially impacting Turkey's

sovereignty. The increasing demand for energy, including natural gas and petroleum commodities, also

continues to occur in Turkey, in line with the country's rapid economic growth. The author highlights

this as proof of how highly dependent Turkey is on other countries, especially Russia, to meet its energy

sector needs.

Meanwhile, the economic and tourism sectors play a dominant role in the intertwining of

relations between Turkey and Ukraine. Notably, the number of tourists from Ukraine visiting Turkey

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Salma Salsabila, Mohammad Izdiyan Muttaqin

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in 2019 was one of the largest at 1,600,000 visitors. This makes Ukraine have a central role in driving

the Turkish economy, especially in the tourism sector. The total trade volume between Turkey and

Ukraine in 2019 was recorded at 4.8 billion US dollars with details of exports of 2.9 billion USD and

imports of 2.72 billion USD. There are about 600 Turkish companies operating in Ukraine with an

economic value of $3 billion. In terms of infrastructure, the total value of projects undertaken by

Turkish construction companies in Ukraine reached 6.28 billion USD. In recent years, Turkey and

Ukraine have intensively increased cooperation in various strategic sectors such as the economy and

defense. This was realized through meetings between state leaders, conducted alternately in each

country by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in

2019. These meetings resulted in several agreements within the framework of free trade agreements

(FTA) in the fields of economy, infrastructure and defense. In detail, a Turkish communications service

provider called Turkcell is one of the three main companies operating massively in Ukraine. This serves

as proof of the significant connection of Turkey and Ukraine, considering that the network and

communication services sector is one of the important sectors. In the field of defense, Ukraine has

consistently engaged in cooperation transactions in the procurement of defense equipment from

Turkey. One notable example is the purchase of six armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) named

Bayraktar TB2 and three ground control station systems. Additionally, the Ukrainian aircraft

manufacturer, Antonov, was also mentioned in the process of exploring cooperation with Turkey in

developing the aviation industry including the manufacture of the AN-178 aircraft. The Turkish

government also committed $25.8 million to Ukraine to bolster its military capabilities. Various

strategic cooperation established by Turkey and Ukraine from time to time have contributed to the

continuous improvement of relations between the two countries.

Turkey's relations with Russia and Ukraine experienced its own dynamics and challenges when

Russia invaded Ukraine which began on February 24, 2022. Russia's justification for its "special

military operation" instead of its invasion of Ukraine places Turkey in a difficult position due to its

strategic ties with both sides of the conflict. This underlies Turkey, under President Erdogan's

government, to play an active role in efforts to mediate between Russia and Ukraine in order to reach

a peaceful resolution. The author specifically highlights Turkey's contribution in attempting to defuse

the conflict tensions, as evidenced by President Erdogan's condemnation statement, which labeled

Russia's military action an unacceptable act and a gross violation of international law. On February 28,

2022, Turkey provided moral support to Ukraine by recognizing Russia's actions as an act of war.

Nevertheless, the author also highlights Turkey's strategy of maintaining its strategic relations with

both Russia and Ukraine which is realized through providing support to both countries through various

means and instruments. For example, while Turkey condemns Russia's invasion and labels it an act of

war, it also opposes Western sanctions against Russia. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu

confirmed this stance by stating that Russia is welcome in Turkey to carry out various business

activities as long as it is in accordance with the corridors of agreement and applicable international

law. The author highlights this as Turkey's attempt to position itself in a pro-Ukrainian stance without

directly countering Russia, considering that relations with the two countries are of great significance

for Turkey's economic stability.

The complexity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict makes Turkey proceed with caution, taking

various considerations and calculations into account. Turkey's reliance on the energy sector from

Russia and the tourism sector from Ukraine, both of which significantly impact domestic economic

stability, makes Turkey undertake various efforts to mediate the conflict between these countries.

Through this research, the author will conduct a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the conflict

between Russia and Ukraine on Turkey's economic stability.

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METHODS

Research method is a way or instrument used to obtain, test and refine the truth, ensuring that

research under study is accurate, well-structured and focused. Based on its characteristics, research

methods are composed of organized ways to collect, process, and analyze data needed to address a

particular case study. The author will specifically use qualitative methods to analyze the impact of the

conflict between Russia and Ukraine on Turkey's economic stability. In detail, the data for this study

will be gathered from secondary sources, including various publication documents, study literature

and related scientific articles. All data obtained will then undergo a classification process based on their

respective subjects for further data analysis process. The purpose of this data analysis process is to

interpret and comprehend data that has been compiled in a structured and systematic manner by

providing relevant explanations. The data analysis process employed in this study is a qualitative

analysis, which describes and elaborates data logically, clearly, coherently, and effectively to facilitate

the process of understanding and reviewing the results of research analysis.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Turkey's economy was already in an unstable state due to the implementation of a new

economic model implemented by the government under the administration of President Recep Tayyip

Erdogan, even before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine emerged. This is because the economic

policy model applied is considered to be full of risks and controversial, as it is oriented towards dealing

with inflation without increasing the central bank interest rate. The conflict between Russia and

Ukraine marks a new beginning in Turkey's economic instability, as its export-focused strategy and

dependence on several crucial domestic sectors have been significantly affected. The conflict has also

exacerbated the performance of the Turkish currency exchange rate, the Lira, which has been

experiencing devaluation in recent years. The author specifically highlights the state of Turkey's

relations with Russia and Ukraine, which have long been economically advantageous but are now

transforming into challenges.

Turkey currently imports the majority of the food products consumed by its citizens. This

situation creates its own problems when inflation increases significantly, as dependence on imported

food products makes economic conditions unstable. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) reported

a 16.4 percent increase in the consumer price index during the first two months of 2022. Furthermore,

the Turkish Inflation Research Group (ENAGrup) estimates that the prices of consumer goods and

services surged by nearly 124 percent between February 2021 and February 2022. Turkey is also

ranked as the third-largest wheat importing country globally, with an annual wheat import allocation

of 20 tons. In detail, Turkey imports 65 percent of wheat commodities from Russia and 13 percent from

Ukraine. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated wheat prices in Turkey, leading to

a 120 percent increase in bread prices.

The implications arising from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine occur in various strategic

sectors that directly impact Turkish citizens. This happened when Turkish citizens engaged in panic

buying of sunflower oil products, which serve various daily life functions. Based on the author's

observations, Turkey is the world’s largest importer of sunflower oil commodities, primarily sourced

from Russia and Ukraine, accounting for 70% of its imports. Another sector heavily affected by this

conflict is fuel and gas, which have experienced rapid increases in prices. Several countries have faced

similar impacts in this sector, but notably, the price of gasoline in Turkey has tripled, endangering

approximately 4000 gas stations with potential closures due to exorbitant prices. If not mitigated

promptly, more than 50,000 people working in the oil and gas sector may lose their jobs. Turkey's strong

presence in the Russian and Ukrainian markets is a major factor contributing to the significant impact

of the conflict on the Turkish economy. Another sector affected is in the food and beverage industry, one

of which is also felt by Anadolu Efes as the fifth largest brewing company in Europe. It has 11 facilities

in Russia and three in Ukraine which had to temporarily close operations due to the conflict between

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Russia and Ukraine. The clothing sector also suffered from the conflict, exemplified by several Istanbul-

based companies facing losses. These companies had significant product orders from Russia and

Ukraine, constituting 40 percent of the total trade volume. The tourism sector, which contributed 11

percent to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2019, was also adversely affected by the conflict. This was

due to the implementation of sanctions imposed by western countries on Russia, including a freeze in

the financial system of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT).

Russian tourists who have made hotel reservations and travel plans to Turkey encountered difficulties,

potentially leading to cancellations. Similarly, tourists from Ukraine, residing in a conflict zone, faced

restrictions on traveling to Turkey, resulting in decreased economic income from the tourism sector. In

the end, this series of various impacts will also have repercussions on the Turkish economic sector at

the macro level.

The author will present a number of statistical data to offer a comprehensive and accurate

explanation of the trend in Turkey's relations with Russia and Ukraine across various strategic sectors.

This data will aid in analyzing how Turkey can strategically position itself amidst the conflict between

Russia and Ukraine to safe guard the stability of the country's economy.

Figure 1. The Value of Turkish-Russian Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

The trend in the value of Russian foreign direct investment (FDI) in Turkey has consistently

increased, especially since 2013. This increase is influenced by various strategic investments made by

Russia in Turkey. One notable example is the joint development of steel plants by the Russian company

Magnitogorsk Metal and the Turkish company Atakas which is one of the largest in the region. However,

the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted the activities of such companies, ultimately

impacting Turkey's economic stability.

The Value of Turkish-Russian Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

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Figure 2. Turkey's Total Natural Gas Imports

The natural gas sector plays a pivotal role in the relations between Turkey and Russia. Based on

the statistics collected, it is evident that Russia has consistently dominated the value of natural gas

imports to Turkey since 2010, surpassing other countries. Russia's economy heavily relies on energy

exports and requires stable market conditions. It noted that petroleum, crude oil, and natural gas

commodities constitute 70% of all Russian exports, with Turkey being one of the primary destination

countries for these energy products.

Figure 3. Countries exporting wheat products of Ukraine

Ukraine tends to dominate in terms of food products, particularly in the case of wheat commodities.

Turkey is among the top 10 countries that import Ukrainian wheat, specifically ranking within the top

three. It's important to note that Turkey's domestic food distribution chain could face potential disruptions

if the import of wheat from Ukraine is hampered due to the invasion by Russia.

Turkey's Total Natural

Gas Imports

(2010-2018)

Turkey's Total Natural Gas Imports

(2010-2018)

Countries exporting wheat products of Ukraine

Top 10 Countries with the Highest Exporter Value (unit: million

tons)

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Figure 4. Percentage of Import of Agricultural Commodity

Data related to the imports of agricultural commodity products from Russia and Ukraine position

Turkey as the country with the highest value, indicating a significant level of dependence on both

countries. Based on the data compiled by the authors, Turkey relies on various agricultural commodities

from Russia and Ukraine, including wheat, corn, sesame seeds and sunflower oil. The conflict between

Russia and Ukraine has had a significant impact given Turkey’ high level of dependence on both countries.

The author highlights the complexity and dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as it has multi-

sectoral implications for Turkey. As a country that maintains strong relations with both conflicting parties,

Turkey must strategically position itself to avoid being a party that suffers losses. Under President

Erdogan’s leadership, Turkey must strive to secure its national interests, particularly maintaining

economic stability and growth, in the face of global challenges. To provide a more comprehensive and

contextual analysis of how Turkey responds to the Russia-Ukraine conflict to maintain economic stability,

the author will conduct an analysis with a theoretical approach focusing on national interests and rational

choices as follows:

1. Turkey's National Interests in the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict

This study specifically adopts the theory of national interest in analyzing Turkey's response to the

Russia-Ukraine conflict to maintain the country's economic stability. The national interest refers to the

goal a country aims to achieve and is related to its needs and priorities. The definition underscores that

national interest plays a pivotal role in shaping a country's direction and behavior of a country. Turkey is

currently undergoing economic reforms, which have yet to yield positive results, as it continues to grapple

with a current account deficit due to the Turkish central bank's policy to cut interest rates, even in the

Percentage of Import of Agricultural

Commodity

Ukrai

nia

Russian

Ukrainia

Percentage of Import of Agricultural Commodity

Products

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IJSSR Page 1648

face of rising inflation. This policy has drawn criticism from experts and the international economic

community, as it is considered an unconventional measure in the economic realm. Consequently, during

this crucial period, Turkey must strike a balance between its relations with Russia, which focuses on

energy, trade, and defense, and Ukraine which focuses on food and defense. In 2021, the value of Turkey's

bilateral trade with Russia reached 37.7 billion USD with the majority consisting of Russian exports to

Turkey in the form of petroleum commodities, natural gas, and other products. In addition, Turkey's

exports of machinery and transport equipment to European countries heavily rely on semi-finished

materials imported from Ukraine and Russia. The conflict between these two countries could disrupt the

production process, resulting a decrease in Turkey's export revenues. Consequently, Turkey has

significant national interests that must be defended and safeguarded amid the ongoing conflict between

Russia and Ukraine.

The author highlights the various efforts that have been made by Turkey to facilitate conflict

resolution and peace between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey's mission in this regard clearly lies in its

national interest of maintaining economic stability amid the ongoing reform process. Turkey's efforts

materialized through hosting and mediating between Russia and Ukraine in finding common ground for

conflict resolution. On March 10, 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Ukrainian

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in the southern Turkish city of Antalya. This meeting, structured as a

Trilateral Meeting and chaired by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, emphasized a

reconciliation approach based on the shared desire of each country for peace and stability. In the forum,

Turkey showed its commitment in rebuilding regional stability by prioritizing diplomacy over violence.

Based on the author's observations, Turkey's intention in securing its national interests in the Russia-

Ukraine conflict was further evident in the second meeting held in Istanbul on March 29, 2022. The choice

of Istanbul as the location for this strategic meeting sends a clear signal that the conflict between Russia

and Ukraine must be resolved immediately to ensure the resumption of Turkey's economic activities.

During the second meeting sponsored by Turkey in Istanbul, Russia began to exhibit signs of de-escalation

by stating its intent to reduce military operations around the city of Kyiev and in northern Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine proposed adopting neutral status in the conflict with Russia. Turkey maintained its

role as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, playing a dual role by condemning Russia's invasion while

also opposing Western sanctions against Russia. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stated that

the meetings with Russia and Ukraine had achieved the most significant results in the path towards

conflict resolution. Russia's commitment to de-escalate the conflict was perceived as a positive signal by

various stakeholders, marking an achievement for Turkey in its endeavors to secure its national interests.

Turkey has systematically elevated the Russia-Ukraine conflict to a new strategic point in

expanding its influence on the world stage. Turkey's success in mediating the negotiation process between

Russia and Ukraine holds the potential not only to bring peace between the two conflicting countries but

also to enhance Turkey's strategic bargaining power in the region. This enhanced position can ultimately

be leveraged to strengthen Turkey's international economic network. The author will describe Turkey's

decision-making process in safeguarding its economic interests amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict by

employing the model of national interest theory according to Donald E. Nuchterlin. The selection of this

model is based on the relevance to the research case studies, aiding in the understanding of how Turkey

responds to the Russia-Ukraine conflict to secure its national interests while maintaining the country's

economic stability.

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Ideological importance

(Ideological Interest)

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine poses a threat to the

region's peace ideology, which could have various adverse

implications for the stability of the Turkish state. Economic

sectors that are strongly influenced by various multi-sector

factors require political and social stability to ensure the smooth

growth rate.

World Order Interest

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine can be an opportunity

for Turkey to enhance its influence on the international stage by

mediating the conflict. This increase in bargaining power, both

regionally and internationally, will also have a significant impact

on Turkey's economic sector, which is of

national interest.

Economic importance

(Economic Interest)

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has significantly affected

the stability of the Turkish economy. Turkey's strong relations

with both countries are reflected in various strategic cooperation

that hold substantial value. Turkey's success as a mediator in the

peace process between Russia and Ukraine will affect the

restoration

of Turkey's economic stability.

Defense Interests

(Defence Interest)

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine significantly impact the

regional security situation which will also affect the Turkey’s

economic stability due to its direct cooperation with both sides in

the field of defense. Achieving a resolution to the conflict between

Russia and Ukraine will help Turkey in restoring regional stability

which will

have implications for the recovery of the country's economic

sector.

Based on the author's identification and analysis of Turkey's national interests using the model

chart above, it becomes evident that Turkey has a pivotal role in the process of achieving conflict

resolution and peace between Russia and Ukraine. This role extends beyond facilitating peaceful relations

between the two countries; it also encompasses Turkey's efforts to reestablish productive relations with

Russia and Ukraine in various strategic cooperation Ultimately, these efforts aim to maintain economic

stability and foster Turkey's economic growth.

2. Turkey's Rational Choice in the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict

The Turkish government under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has maintained and

implemented its own foreign policy priorities consistently. To gain a comprehensive and contextual

understanding of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's decision-making process, considering his tenure

since 2014 and the political dynamics he has navigated, the author will employ the theory of rational

choice through the approach of rational actors. The reference model for this study is compiled by Graham

T. Allison. This theoretical approach encompasses a decision-making process consisting of four

constructive stages: Goals and Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, and choice.

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Salma Salsabila, Mohammad Izdiyan Muttaqin

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Goals and Objectives

Achievement of economic

stability and dominance of

regional influence

Alternatives

Acting as a mediator in the

Russia-Ukraine conflict

while taking advantage of

the momentum to increase

economic bargaining power

and influence in the region

Siding with one of the

countries involved in the

conflict based on the most

favorable calculations

Consequences

There was stagnation and a

shift in focus from domestic

reform to a foreign conflict

resolution orientation

There were losses and

defeats which had a major

impact on the stability of

the Turkish economy

Choice

Become a conflict mediator

and play a dual role by

neither fully supporting nor

opposing Russia-Ukraine

and focusing on conflict

resolution efforts that can

benefit Turkey's economic

restoration

Figure 5. Four Constructive Stages

Rational choice theory, approached through the lens of a rational actor, is grounded in the idea

that the government, as a decision maker, will thoroughly evaluate all alternatives to achieve the most

profitable results with the least risk. Based on this research case study, President Erdogan played a

significant role in making the decision to strategically position Turkey in a relatively neutral stance within

the Russia-Ukraine conflict. President Erdogan's rationale for this move stems from a logical

consideration that Turkey maintains strong relations with both countries across various strategic sectors.

The author has already provided comprehensive details regarding these collaborations, notably in the

energy sector with Russia and in the realm of food commodities with Ukraine. In addition, President

Erdogan has also consistently fostered cooperation in the defense sector with both Russia and Ukraine on

multiple occasions. This approach aligns with President Erdogan's personal rapport with Russian

President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

The author specifically highlights President Erdogan's cautious and strategic approach in

positioning Turkey when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates. President Erdogan's

approach aims for a balanced and constructive stance that considers the interests of both sides. For

instance, Turkey condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations (UN) session and

acknowledged Ukraine's call for Russia's action as an act of war. However, Turkey also opposes Western

sanctions against Russia. This dual role is undertaken with careful calculation and consideration, given

Turkey's significant dependence on Russia and Ukraine. Since the beginning of the conflict, President

Erdogan has instructed 82 trucks loaded with humanitarian aid to Ukraine and sent a humanitarian aid

team from Turkey's Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD). In addition, President

Erdogan instructed Turkey to accept refugees from both Ukraine and Russia, emphasizing that this action

is purely humanitarian, without regard to ethnicity or citizenship status. These steps have bolstered

Turkey's credibility as a mediator for Russia and Ukraine. Some 14,000 Russians have sought refuge in

Turkey in the first three weeks of the conflict. President Erdogan facilitated the entry of conflict refugees

through visa-free policies and provided humanitarian assistance to both countries. Based on the author's

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Salma Salsabila, Mohammad Izdiyan Muttaqin observation and analysis, President Erdogan's decision-

making process, as a rational actor explained through rational choice theory, prioritizes choices with the

most significant impact and the least risk. Thus far, President Erdogan's foreign diplomacy has effectively

balanced Turkey's bargaining power in mediating conflicts, ultimately contributing to the restoration of

productive relations with Russia and Ukraine, which can lead to domestic economic stability.

CONCLUSION

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine undeniably has significant implications for Turkey's

economic stability. Given Turkey's strong and longstanding relations with Russia and Ukraine, Turkey

finds itself in a difficult position, requiring a response grounded in rational considerations that are most

favorable to Turkey’s interest. Turkey, currently undergoing an economic reform process, has contributed

to the decision-making process of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This is because the economic reform policy

has yet to yield positive outcomes, considering that the Turkish economy continues to experience a

current account deficit, due to the Turkish central bank's policy to cut interest rates despite the increasing

inflation. In this critical juncture, Turkey must maintain a balance between its relations with Russia which

focuses on energy, trade, and defense, and Ukraine which focuses on food and defense.

Turkey has a fundamentally crucial role in the process of achieving conflict resolution and peace

between Russia and Ukraine. This role extends beyond merely facilitating re-establishment of peaceful

relations between the two countries; it focuses on restoring productive relations with Russia and Ukraine

across various strategic cooperation sectors. The ultimate goal is to ensure economic stability and

increase Turkey's economic growth. The leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plays a significant

role in shaping Turkey’s foreign policy response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. President Erdogan

personal rapport with leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian President Volodymyr

Zelenskiy allows Turkey to strategically position itself as a constructive mediator in the conflict resolution

process between the two countries. This study concludes logically that Turkey's response under the

leadership of President Erdogan to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is rooted in long-term considerations

aimed at nurturing constructive relations with both countries that have significant implications for

Turkey's economic stability.

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Salma Salsabila, Mohammad Izdiyan Muttaqin (2023)

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