Based on the results of the analysis, it can be seen
that the logistic regression model can be formulated as follows:
Ln 
�=
-4,139+0.000NTR + 0,453FS � 0,110LEV � 0,017LIK + 
Each positive (+) and negative (-) sign indicates
the direction of change (increase or decrease) of the dependent variable or decision
making hedging using derivative instruments, if one of the independent
variables changes. Each regression coefficient value in this study is a partial
regression coefficient value and calculates changes in the value of the
variable (assuming the other independent variables are constant). This
interpretation will be more meaningful if it is only in the form of
probability, which is obtained by calculating the antilog of the coefficients
slope.
The logistic regression equation can be described as
follows: The rupiah exchange rate variable has a regression coefficient of
0.000, meaning that for every 1 percent increase in the rupiah exchange rate,
the company in making decisions hedging will be 0.000 percent assuming other
variables are constant.
Variable firm size has a regression coefficient of
0.453, which means that for every 1 percent increase in firm size, the contract
hedging will increase by 0.453 percent assuming other variables are constant.
The variable leverage has a regression coefficient
of -0.110 which means that for every 1 percent increase in DAR, the contract
hedging will decrease by 0.110 percent assuming the other variables are
constant.
The liquidity variable proxied by using the current
ratio has a regression coefficient of -0.017, which means that for every 1
percent increase in the current ratio, the contract hedging will decrease by
0.017 percent assuming the other variables are constant.
From the logistic regression equation, it can be
seen that the rupiah exchange rate variable (X1), firm size (X2) has a positive
effect, meaning that the higher the value of the independent variable, the
higher the probability of hedging. As for the variable leverage (X3), liquidity
(X4) has a negative effect on the dependent variable (activity hedging), which
means that the higher the value of the independent variable, the probability of
activity hedging the lower.
Based on the results of the logistic regression
analysis, hypothesis testing can be carried out. Testing the first hypothesis
(H1) shows that the rupiah exchange rate variable has a regression coefficient (
�of 0.000 with a probability value (sig) of
0.879 which is greater than the value of 0.05 (
)
and the value wald statistic of 0.023 which is smaller than the chi-square
table (3.841). This means that H1 which states that the rupiah exchange rate
has a positive and significant effect on activities hedging using derivative
transactions in BUMN companies is rejected.
The results of the logistic regression test show
that the rupiah exchange rate variable consistently has a positive regression
coefficient sign with a significant value greater than 0.05 ()
which means that the rupiah exchange rate has a positive but not significant
effect on decisions hedging using derivative instruments in state-owned
companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
Furthermore, testing the second hypothesis (H2)
shows that the variable firm size has a regression coefficient (� of 0.453 with a probability value (sig) of
0.000 which is smaller than 0.05 (
)
and the value of the Wald statistic is 23.957 which is bigger than the
chi-square table (3.841). This means that H2 which states that firm size has a
positive and significant effect on activities hedging using derivative transactions
in state-owned companies is accepted.
The results of the logistic regression test show
that the variable firm size consistently has a positive regression coefficient
sign with a significant value smaller than 0.05 ()
which means that firm size has a positive and significant effect on the
probability of activities hedging in BUMN companies using derivative
instruments.
Then the third hypothesis testing (H3) shows that
the variable leverage has a regression coefficient (� of -0.110 with a probability value of 0.000
which is smaller than 0.05 ()
and the value of the wald statistic is 19.877, which means it is bigger than
the chi-square table (3.841). This means that H3 which states that leverage has
a significant effect on decisions hedging with derivative transactions is
accepted.
The results of the logistic regression test show
that the variable leverage consistently has a regression coefficient sign (
) negative
with a significant value less than 0.05 ()
which means that leverage has a negative but significant effect on the
probability of activities hedging with derivative instruments.
Testing the fourth hypothesis (H4) shows that the
liquidity variable has a logistic regression coefficient (� of -0.017 with a probability value (sig) of
0.000 which is smaller than 0.05 ()
and the value of the wald statistic is 21.495, which means it is bigger than
the chi-square table (3.841). This means H4 which states that liquidity has a
negative and significant effect on decisions hedging with derivative
transactions is accepted.
Based on the results of the logistic regression
test, it shows that the liquidity variable consistently has a negative
regression coefficient sign with a significant value smaller than 0.05 ()
which means that liquidity has a negative and significant effect on the
probability of decisions hedging using derivative instruments.
Each positive (+) and negative (-) sign indicates
the direction of change (increase or decrease) of the dependent variable or
decision making hedging using derivative instruments if one of the independent
variables changes. Each regression coefficient value in this study is a partial
regression coefficient value and calculates changes in the value of the
variable (assuming the other independent variables are constant). This
interpretation will be more meaningful if it is only in the form of
probability, which is obtained by calculating the antilog of the slope of the
coefficient.
The logistic regression equation can be described as
follows: The rupiah exchange rate variable has a regression coefficient of
0.000, meaning that for every 1 percent increase in the rupiah exchange rate,
the company in making decisions hedging will be 0.000 percent assuming other
variables are constant.
Variable Firm size has a regression coefficient of
0.453, which means that for every 1 percent increase in firm size, the contract
hedging will increase by 0.453 percent assuming other variables are constant.
The variable leverage has a regression coefficient
of -0.110 which means that for every 1 percent increase in DAR, the contract
hedging will decrease by 0.110 percent assuming the other variables are
constant.
The liquidity variable proxied by using the current
ratio has a regression coefficient of -0.017, which means that for every 1
percent increase in the current ratio, the contract hedging will decrease by
0.017 percent assuming the other variables are constant.
From the logistic regression equation, it can be
seen that the rupiah exchange rate variable (X1), firm size (X2) has a positive
effect, meaning that the higher the value of the independent variable, the
higher the probability of hedging. As for the variable leverage (X3), liquidity
(X4) has a negative effect on the dependent variable (activity hedging), which means
that the higher the value of the independent variable, the probability of
activity hedging the lower.
Based on the results of the logistic regression
analysis, hypothesis testing can be carried out. Testing the first hypothesis
(H1), shows that the rupiah exchange rate variable has a regression coefficient
(�of 0.000 with a probability value (sig) of
0.879 which is greater than the value of 0.05 ()
and the value wald statistic of 0.023 which is
smaller than the chi-square table (3.841). This means that H1 which states that
the rupiah exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on activities
hedging using derivative transactions in BUMN companies is rejected.
The results of the logistic regression test show
that the rupiah exchange rate variable consistently has a positive regression
coefficient sign with a significant value greater than 0.05 ()
which means that the rupiah exchange rate has a positive but not significant
effect on decisions hedging using derivative instruments in state-owned
companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
Furthermore, testing the second hypothesis (H2)
shows that the variable firm size has a regression coefficient (� of 0.453 with a probability value (sig) of
0.000 which is smaller than 0.05 () and
the value of the wald statistic is 23.957 which is bigger than the chi-square
table (3.841). This means that H2 which states that firm size has a positive
and significant effect on activities hedging using derivative transactions in
state-owned companies is accepted.
The results of the logistic regression test show
that the variable firm size consistently has a positive regression coefficient
sign with a significant value smaller than 0.05 ()
which means that firm size has a positive and significant effect on the
probability of activities hedging in BUMN companies using derivative
instruments.
Then the third hypothesis testing (H3) shows that
the variable leverage has a regression coefficient (�� of
-0.110 with a probability value of 0.000 which is smaller than 0.05 ()
and the value of the wald statistic is 19.877, which means it is bigger than
the chi-square table (3.841). This means that H3 which states that leverage has
a significant effect on decisions hedging with derivative transactions is accepted.
The results of the logistic regression test show
that the variable leverage consistently has a regression coefficient sign (�negative with a significant value less than
0.05 ()
which means that leverage has a negative but significant effect on the
probability of activities hedging with derivative instruments.
Testing the fourth hypothesis (H4), shows that the
liquidity variable has a logistic regression coefficient (�of -0.017 with a probability value (sig) of
0.000 which is smaller than 0.05 ()
and the value of the wald statistic is 21.495, which means it is bigger than
the chi-square table (3.841). This means H4 which states that liquidity has a
negative and significant effect on decisions hedging with derivative
transactions is accepted.
Based on the results of the logistic regression
test, it shows that the liquidity variable consistently has a negative
regression coefficient sign with a significant value smaller than 0.05 ()
which means that liquidity has a negative and significant effect on the
probability of decisions hedging using derivative instruments.
2. Data
Interpretation/Discussion
1)
Effect
of Rupiah Exchange Rate on Hedging or Decision Making Hedging
Based
on the results of regression analysis, it can be seen that the rupiah exchange
rate variable does not have a significant influence on decisions hedging using
derivative instruments. This can be seen in table 5.6 where the regression
coefficient value is 0.000 and the wald statistic is
0.023 with a significance value of 0.879. The significance value is greater
than 0.05.
When
the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar experienced appreciation or
depreciation in 2016-2018, it did not affect state-owned companies to take decisions
hedging using derivative instruments. Because state-owned companies can manage
risk management against foreign exchange, interest rates with other
alternatives such as risk containment, where rupiah exchange rate risk can be
overcome by using or techniques hedging-hedging natural with transaction
activities carried out in foreign exchange or foreign currency. In addition,
the company applies reserve funds, namely by placing funds in productive assets.
In
accordance with (Hanafi, 2016) which
states that a company in overcoming risk can use several techniques, which are
divided into four types: risk retention, risk avoidance, risk reduction and,
risk transfer. It can be concluded that state-owned companies in dealing with
the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar are carried out with
various risk management alternatives other than using hedging, such as one of
them using risk retention with reserve funds and transaction activities such as
sales made in foreign currencies so that companies can fulfill its foreign
currency obligations from the proceeds of the sale. These results support the
results of previous research conducted by (Kinasih
& Mahardika, 2019). And contrary to the results of research conducted
by (Sofia & Yuneline, 2019)
which stated that the rupiah exchange rate had a significant effect on decision
making hedging.
2)
The
Effect of Firm Size on decision Making
The
Hedging results of the research obtained regarding the Effect of Firm Size on
decision Making Hedging Using Derivative Instruments in BUMN Companies Listed
on the IDX for the 2016-2018 period. Data analysis shows that firm size has a
significant positive impact on the use of derivatives as a decision hedging.
This can be seen from the hypothesis testing where the significant value of
firm size is 0.000 which is less than 0.05 at the 5% significance level.� Decision hedging to use derivatives will
increase 0.435 times if the company is large.
State-owned
companies with a larger size have the possibility to carry out wider and more
risky transactions, such as exports and imports. If a state-owned company
conducts transactions between countries with foreign debt, purchases raw
materials, and sells products in foreign currencies, so the state-owned company
has the risk of fluctuations in the exchange rate or exchange rate. Therefore,
companies tend to do more activities hedging to protect their assets. In
addition, the impact caused by risk to a large company is more significant, so
the company will apply more stringent risk management compared to a small
company, for example in practice the company will use different currencies in
its activities. To reduce the exchange rate risk that may occur, the company
can overcome it by hedging. Large companies are also more likely to use
derivatives to hedge exposure risk than small companies because they have the
resources and knowledge needed to do so.
Research
data shows that most companies that have high total assets are part of a group
of companies that make decisions to hedge or hedge.
The
results of this study support the results of previous studies conducted by (Bodroastuti, Paranita, & Ratnasari, 2019)
and (Gatot
Nazir Ahmad et al., 2015) which resulted in firm size having a positive and
significant effect on decisions hedging.
3)
Effect
of Leverage Decision Against Hedging
The
ratio leverage is the ratio between total debt and total assets owned by the
company. The results of the logistic regression test on the variable leverage
show that the probability value (sig) is 0.000 where the sig value is less than
0.05. The results of this study state that the variable leverage partially has
an influence on decisions hedging using derivative instruments. However, the
value of the regression coefficient (�in this study showed a negative result of
-0.110 so that the variable leverage had a significant negative effect on
decisions hedging using derivative instruments. This means that the higher the
level of leverage, the lower the implementation of decisions hedging.
Based
on the results of the study that the possibility of a company making a decision
to hedge when its debt decreases are 0.110 times compared to when its debt
increases. An increase in leverage will result in a decrease inactivity hedging
in BUMN companies, and vice versa if leverage decreases it will result in an
increase in indecisions hedging for BUMN companies. If the debt-to-asset ratio
is high, this will of course reduce the ability of state-owned enterprises to
obtain additional loans from creditors because it is feared that state-owned
enterprises will not be able to pay off their debts with the total assets they
have. leverage A small indicates that at least the company's assets are
financed by debt (in other words that most of the assets owned by state-owned
companies are financed by capital).
The
results of this study support the results of previous studies conducted by (Widyagoca & Lestari, 2016)
and (Noryati Ahmad & Haris, 2012)
which said that leverage had a significant negative effect on hedging policies.
4)
The
Effect of Liquidity on decision Making
The
Hedging results of this study indicate that the regression coefficient value
for the liquidity variable is -0.017 with a probability value (sig) of 0.000
which is smaller than 0.05 ().
This means that the liquidity variable has a negative and significant effect on
decisions hedging with derivative transactions.
When
the company's ability to meet its short-term obligations decreases, the
possibility of the company to hedge is 0.017 times compared to when short-term
liabilities increase. The high liquidity of a company indicates the company is
able to meet its short-term obligations and the company has reserve funds to
deal with risks so as to avoid the risk of financial difficulties. When the
level of liquidity is high in a company, the company will avoid risk, therefore
the possibility of the company taking decisions is hedging low. Meanwhile, when
the company has a current ratio at a low, it indicates the company's inability
to pay its short-term obligations and finance its operations so that the risk
of failure is higher, therefore the company needs to make a decision to hedge
using derivative instruments to manage risk. The results of this study support
the results that have been found by previous researchers, namely (Chaudhry, Iqbal, Mehmood, & Mehmood, 2014), (Dewi & Rahayu, 2016), (Ameer, 2010), (Raghavendra & Velmurugan, 2014), (Astyrianti & Sudiartha, 2017).
CONCLUSION
The rupiah exchange rate has a positive and
insignificant effect on activities hedging using derivative transactions in
state-owned companies. When the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar
depreciated or appreciated in 2016-2018, it did not affect the company to take
decisions hedging using derivative instruments. Because the company chooses to
carry out risk management with other alternatives such as risk holding, where
the risk of the rupiah exchange rate is overcome by using a reserve fund
technique, namely by placing funds in productive assets and natural hedging,
namely by transaction activities carried out in foreign exchange.
Firm size has a positive and significant effect on
decisions hedging using derivative instruments in state-owned companies listed
on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This is because large companies have extensive
operational activities and can be more risky. Therefore,
they tend to do more activities hedging to protect their assets. In addition,
the impact caused by a risk on large companies is greater, the company will
implement a more stringent risk management compared to small companies.
Leverage has a negative and significant effect on
decisions hedging using derivative instruments in state-owned companies listed
on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. When the company has high debt to carry out
its operational activities, the company will decrease to hedge by using
derivative instruments, the company prefers to hedge naturally. In other words,
how much the company's assets are financed by debt or how much the company's
debt affects debt management. If the ratio is high, it means that funding with
more debt will make it more difficult for the company to obtain additional
loans because it is feared that the company will not be able to cover it.
Liquidity has a negative and significant effect on
decisions hedging using derivative instruments in state-owned companies listed
on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The high liquidity of a company indicates the
company is able to meet its short-term obligations and the company has reserve
funds to deal with risks so as to avoid the risk of financial difficulties.
When the level of liquidity is high in a company, the company will avoid risk,
therefore the possibility of the company taking decisions is hedging low.
Meanwhile, when the company has a current ratio at a low, it indicates the
company's inability to pay its short-term obligations and finance its
operations so that the risk of failure is higher, therefore the company needs
to make a decision to hedge using derivative instruments to manage risk.
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